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Ukrainian forces have completed a concentration of forces and facilities south of Donetsk. Thus, they have numerical superiority of manpower and military equipment there. According to reports, Kiev’s side has 5 times more forces than DPR and LPR in these areas, and a military group hidden behind the multi-layered defense is prepared for aggressive offensive actions.
Highly skilled raid forces constantly conduct reconnaissance actions at the DPR and LPR areas of the contact line. Local militia suppose these groups consist of members of Western private military companies.
The full-scale offensive of Kiev forces must be started and finished before the muddy season, or the Ukrainian military will lose momentum and fall into the hands of DPR and LPR Armed Forces. So, we can predict it for the period from September 20 to September 25.
A Kiev advance could seek two goals: First is to take control of the border between Russia and the People’s Republics to destroy resistance in Donbass. Second is to take control of the southern part of DPR including crucial objects of the regional infrastructure to prevent the possible economical autonomy of the region.
The military status quo will likely persist through to a ground frost if Kiev’s offensive isn’t started in September. However, a postponement of military operations brings an additional threat for the Kiev regime. There is a real chance that Kiev won’t be able to concentrate sufficient forces and facilities one more time given the complicated economic and political situation.
In any case, the next escalation of the situation in Donbass will be supported by the rise of anti-Russian rhetoric in Western-backed media outlets and the so-called “international community”.