Written by Julian Macfarlane, Tokyo based military and geopolitical analyst—and voiceover artist for SouthFront.
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This is my voiceover for SouthFront on Transnistria. I did another such video the day after., which you can find on SouthFront’s website, which I urge you to consult regularly. I don’t write these things, just correct a few (not all) grammar mistakes since they are mostly written by non-native English speakers, assembling reports from the field.
I also don’t necessarily agree with the reports. But they offer realistic points of view. SouthFront is a must-read site if you are interested in military intelligence. It is also banned on Facebook, which is its own recommendation, that is mostly getting things right.
The SF writers seemed to think that Romania, Ukraine and Moldova might team up to create a new front. “Might”? “Could“? We are talking about possibilities. In war, those change by the day.
There is a small contingent of Russian peacekeepers in Transnistria, although unofficial reports say that this has been quietly reinforced. SF believes that the target in Transnistria is a huge Soviet era ammunition depot: the UAF still mostly uses Soviet era weaponry, and they are desperate for ammunition.
On the other hand, the ammunition stored is old and unstable. An assault would be dangerous to the people of the region because if the depot went up, it could cause almost nuclear level devastation.
Given the UAF’s habit of indiscriminate artillery attacks, detonating the depot, accidentally or intentionally, is a real possibility: it would cause huge damage, which Zelensky — and the West — would take as a victory, even if the offensive was a failure.
It is significant that Putin has cancelled the 2012 decree on Moldova.
“The decree committed Russia to seeking ways to resolve the separatist issue “based on respect for the sovereignty, territorial integrity and neutral status of the Republic of Moldova in determining the special status of Transnistria”.
Does that mean Russia will take over Moldova? No — but Russia is now guaranteeing the independence of Transnistria and the Moldovans best not interfere since Putin will do whatever is necessary to protect this new country and the integrity of the depot.
As for Moldova, the Moldovans have seen what’s happening in Ukraine. Things are bad there and bad enough in Moldova. Why make them worse?
The Moldovan government is shaky. It is not as afraid of the Russians as it is of its own people.
Although most Moldovans identify as Moldovans, the country is multiethnic populated by Russians, Turkic peoples, Romanians, Ukrainians, , Bulgarians, Roma and others. Moldova has three pro-Russian parties, the Socialists, the Sor Party, and the Communists. Currently the ruling party, under Dorin Recean is trying to suppress it is opposition, just as Zelensky did in Ukraine, although less violently and without the Nazi thugs to back him up.
The opposition parties are populist – with progressive, people-centered, Euroskeptic, NATO-skeptic policies. Recean’s center right conservative government is supported largely by a Western-educated Yuppy class and the Romanian speaking young, influenced by Western propaganda.
But there is widespread popular dissatisfaction with governmental malfeasance and corruption, and hard times for ordinary people. Governmental “anticorruption” programs are seen as witch-hunts, since corruption, where it occurs, is in the bureaucracy and business.
Moldova is one of the poorest countries in Europe, with a population of just 4 million.
For ordinary people, it would be far better off as part of Russia or as a Russia dependency, as Transnistria is now. Those better off look to the West.
In either case, a Ukrainian offensive is the last thing that Moldova needs this moment.
The country is in no position to get into a military conflict. The US could try to force it, of course. But they would have to get the support of Romania.
Romania, however, is unlikely to get involved directly, since then the Russians would be justified in attacking it.
The 82nd Airborne is there, of course, as token protection. If it attacks the Russians, that would get the US directly involved. But their forces would be quickly destroyed without massive backup. Backup would take time, giving the Russians the initiative. In end you would have massive casualties on the US side, something the US public is not used to.
Nothing so far suggests the US wants to go head-to-head with the Russians. Not when it would mean shattering the expensively cultured myth of American invincibility. The Offal Eagle, like the Offal Office, squawks and talks. Ever seen an eagle attacked by crows.? Or even by seagulls?
Eagles? Big beak. Nasty claws. Huge wings. And unwieldy. Just like the US military, it likes diving on tiny prey, mice or rabbits, from great heights when it is not foraging for carrion.
Crows are mobile and smart like the Russians.
Fortunately, the Ukrainians are likely only threatening an offensive, just as they did with that “offensive” on Mariupol and Crimea recently. They don’t want a larger war, with bigger failures.
Russia so far has only committed a small percentage of its resources to its SMO — just in case, there is a full-scale war. If the SMO suddenly becomes a real “war” in the Western sense, then Goodbye Mr. Zelensky will be running on prime time. Maybe with We Aint Abiden Biden No More. Your sponsors: the Military Industrial Complex and CNN.
No matter – the UAF doesn’t really have the means to take Transnistria since the originally small Russian contingent of peacekeepers there would be rapidly reinforced and their own forces have been depleted in the North, as the front line collapses from Artemovsk, which is as of today’s writing almost surrounded, Ugledar.
Ugledar is holding. But once Artemovsk falls….
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MORE ON THE TOPIC:
- War Clouds Over Transnistria
- A New Front In The SMO?
- A Fragile Balance Of Power In Transnistria Slips Towards Military Escalation
Watch an exclusive interview with former US mercenary John McIntyre, who signed up for the Ukrainian army at the start of the conflict, and later defected to Russia.
He shares his experiences on alleged atrocities by the Ukrainian forces and direct role of the US in the conflict.
I think that guy never supported the Nazis in Ukarine,he joined them to expose what they are,very brave guy,they would have killed him in a heart beat if they knew he was gathering intelligence on them,then they would have blamed the Russians.
It is possible , he joined them because he believed in them and the “just war” , but changed his mind after he saw the reality. So he wouldn’t have been “noticed” for a long time. And then he had a liitle bit luck to escape. In direction Russia , because the other way would have probably mean his death.
“As many as 140 Ukrainian personnel, four armored combat vehicles and an Akatsiya self-propelled howitzer were destroyed in that area in the past 24 hours, the Russian MOD specified.
Allied forces supported by combat aircraft and artillery eliminated roughly 350 Ukrainian troops in their advance in the Donetsk area over the past day, spokesman reported.”
So we are talking about almost 500 Nazis down. Not even counting Zapo and Kherson. The fucking grinding is on, like never before! 333 ZOV Rabotayte!
America is winning and won again.
Yeah, like in Afghanistan, Mogadischu, Pigs Bay, Vietnam, etc.
They are you just mix up american people with american business.
They no longer need afghanistan to hide corruption now ukraine is the place where the money they steel supposedly goes.
American people never win, only the Jews at top who control your government.
If you say so, NAFOMO.
They are winning in the Charlie Sheen method.
Please we don’t want to discuss your dreams , it’s not the right chat
Could the troops on the Transnistrian border just be skivers or on R&R? They are at the opposite end from the country from the actual current front, so “threatening Transnistria” is probably one of the best gigs open to them at present! If they did try anything, the Moldovans might rebel against their government and help Transnistria against Ukraine, while less likely it’s a possibility. Transnistria looks very vulnerable, but if an attack prompted the Russian side to massively increase the effort in response then it would be a bad move by Ukraine. Transnistria itself has also remained a neutral country, an unprovoked invasion could alter the opinion of at least some of the international community.
I am not sure how Russia could reinforce the Transnistrian garrison. The only way to get there is either through Ukraine or though Romania. Romania won’t let them reinforce and if they could go through Ukraine they already would have done so, it would require a massive offensive which would take and unknown number of months to conclude.
@Redguard , I suppose the Russian MoD will not explain it to you at the moment. Just be a little bit patient and you will know when the time comes , the “studio experts” will analyse it exactly after it has happened.
The author has explained , in my opinion plausible , why the Ukrainian attack on Transnistria is not really probable. But not impossible , and Gen. Surovokin and others will be very well aware of this.
Ukraine attacking Transnistria would be a stupid move – it would bind more ukrainian troops and weaken the Donbass front. So the only good from it might be a large number of hostages, which could then be exchanged with the russians for captured ukrainian soldiers. But i am not sure if that’s worth invading Transnistria and binding large ukr forces in the south-west for such a small gain. I don t think Ukraine will do that.
But igniting resistance there, brutal guerilla war and support pro-moldavian and pro-ukrainian groups and infiltrators inside there, so that they topple the current pro-russian government and then – in the end, re-unite Transnistria with Moldova, that’s in reach and is indeed possible. But still it won t help Ukraine in it’s overall war effort. That would just be a propaganda victory, something that would for sure anger the russians a bit, but wouldn t change a thing regarding the war itself.
More important would be to build large ammunition and tank and artillery factories close to the Ukrainian theater, for example in Poland, Romania, Moldova, s.o. so that ammunition and weapons-flow is guaranteed and doesn t needs to be brought in from far away aka USA or Germany, France, Spain etc. If supply-lines are to streched, that will in the end always result in losing the war. Since Napoleon and Hitlers visit to Russia, historians can tell you this.
all mens born bisexuel, rusticas, we, ukras also, all mens. og germens. Jast saying ,you delusional
Just one more normal day in a Kiever supermarket… https://twitter.com/i/status/1630409066383024129
“The 82nd Airborne is there, of course, as token protection. If it attacks the Russians, that would get the US directly involved. But their forces would be quickly destroyed without massive backup.”
The US want this thing because Russia cannot fight Poland, Ukraine, Balto-Finnics and Romano-Moldovans at once. But I don’t think that Poles and Romano-Moldovans want to fight against Russians. The only forces that can fight against them are the Ukrainians, the Balto-Finnics and some Caucasians like the Georgians.
Even the georgians refused to enter the war. Just some vountarys in asov.
I am seeing in social media they support Ukraine.
Because USA is not inside, they want the others to fight, while themselves not even providing their partners with the necessary amount of weapons to win the war.
Therefore most who have a chance refuse. On the other hand they see clear that if Ukraine is defeated, who might be next on Putin’s “to-do-list”? That question they ask themselves and therefore of course are preparing and weighting their choices and options carefully. So I guess it is not that they do not want, but cannot afford to do it now. They want time to prepare – same as Ukraine had. Remember, Ukraine had 8 long years , thanks to Putin, to prepare itself for the russians satanic criminal 666 onslaught aka “especially criminal invasion” of Ukraine or whatever the communists officially label their crime.
It is however a difference between Poles , Romanians , Balto-Finnics on the one side and Moldavians , Ukrainians and Georgians on the other – it is NATO. If one of the NATO members starts a war against Russia , it will inevitably lead to a full scale war NATO against Russia. If I can interpret it right , nobody in the American leadership wants it at the moment. In best case , these vasall countries are like hunting dogs , which would immediately run and hunt with great pleasure , but that are strongly held back by the hunter. They are not allowed to. Wow wow.
If NATO attacks Russia then China and India will come to the aid of Russia and they know it.
The problem with war with Russia is not the atomic danger, nor that you might not be able to defeat the Rat Army. No. The problem is that you simple cannot hold these giant landmass occupied. No way you can secure it, if the population starts guerilla war, you are fucked. That’s what everybody fighting Russia knows. So you can just contain, de-militarize, harmonize, weaken or partner with them. That’s the options. Of course if you topple the government and make Russia become a flourishing welfare state, like western Germany was in the 1960’s of course most russians won t give a fuck about communism anymore.
But western Germany economy was created not by the USA but by the german workers and their spirit.
England was angry and ordered all german products to have the label “Made in Germany” on them, hoping that this way nobody would buy them anymore.
You know “evil Nazi product” made in Germany etc. But what happened ?
People around the world jumped on it, and started buying these products like mad, because they were made by germans and everybody knew german products much better quality than british, uk or russian ones. That’s the funny truth. And that’s also why USA, and especially UK hates Germany. It’s the Economy Stupid !!! Churchill even admitted it. Saying “the war was not against Hitler or Nazism, but against the German People and their economy power !”
And moreover USA and Russia are just two sides of the very same medal. Ruled by the same ugly hook-nosed filth of the earth. What is why toppling the government of each other isn t the aim of any of them.
A popular sport was bear baiting you set a pack of dogs
bred for the job on a bear. But first you had to remove
the bears teeth and claws or you ended up with a pack
of dead dogs. USA is holding back the dogs to see if they
can remove the bears teeth and claws first.
Vzhľadom na to, že debili z Ukrajiny sa neboja útočiť na RF tak sa domnievam, že útok na Podnestersko im nerobí žiadne vrásky na čele. Potrebujú už iba požehnanie od darebáckeho štátu USA, lebo banderovské fašistické svine si sami od seba nič nedovolia. Všetko čo robia robia z požehnaním darebáckeho štátu USA. Totižto stále veria tomu, že ich USA, EU a ich teroistická zločinecká organizácia uchráni. Stále tým chumajom nedošlo, že sú na to sami. Západ ich opustí v tu chvíľu keď to budú najmenej očakávať. Poznáme to poniektorí, že? MNICHOV 1938!!!