Israeli Military Capabilities, Scenarios for the Third Lebanon War

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The analysis below was released in December 2017. However, it still provided a useful look at  the prospects of a possible conflict in the region.

The Current State of Affairs

At present time, Israel’s top political leadership is in the state of outright hysteria regarding Lebanese Hezbollah.  Senior Israeli officials have repeatedly claimed that Israel will not allow Hezbollah and Iran to concentrate its forces in border areas and to expand their influence in the region, particularly in Syria and Lebanon.

The already difficult situation in southern Lebanon and Syria was further complicated by the series of events, which contributed to the growing tensions in the region in November and early December. It started with a resignation of Lebanese Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri announced from Saudi Arabia on November 7, continued with Saudi accusations of military aggression through missile supplies to Yemen against Iran and rose to a new level on December 6 when US President Donald Trump recognized Jerusalem as Israel’s capital sparking further escalation.

Some experts also said Israel, Saudi Arabia and the US are conspiring to start a new war in the region. In this light, “The Light of Dagan”, a major military exercise named in honour of the former Director of Foreign Intelligence Service of Israel, Mossad, Meir Dagan, was described as a part of the preparations for armed aggression against Lebanon.

The exercise lasted eleven days, from 4 to 14 September 2017, and involved tens of thousands of troops from all branches of service.

The exercise legend posited that terrorists attacked the village of Shavey Zion, fifteen kilometers from the Lebanese border and, together with hundreds of Hezbollah fighters from the Radwan units, carried out the invasion in the north, captured civilians and occupied the local synagogue. Their ultimate goal was to plant Hezbollah flag of the movement on Israeli soil and send a photo to Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah. In response, Israel carried out the evacuation of civilians, then units of the IDF conducted a large-scale operation in southern Lebanon, which was carried out in three stages. The first stage was defensive, including a counter-attack and the deployment of additional units to counter the Hezbollah movements. The second stage consisted of launching an assault on southern Lebanon. The third phase pushed Hezbollah forces back into Lebanon. The exercises were held in southern Galilee to the south from Highway 85 Akko-Carmiel. The goal of the exercises was the full capitulation of the Hezbollah movement, “depriving them of their ability and willingness to resist”. According to the IDF command, the IDF excelled at these tasks.

The IDF Today

Currently the IDF in the regional scale is a formidable force with the budget of 15.9 bn USD.

According to the yearbook Military Balance 2017, IDF numbers 176 thousand servicemembers, of which 133 thousand are in the Army, 34 thousand in the Air Force, 9.5 thousand in the Navy. In addition, there are 465 thousand troops in reserve. The border police (MAGAV) may provide 8000 troops to assist the military.

Land forces are organized into three regional commands (North, Central, South), two armoured divisions, five territorial infantry divisions, three battalions of Special Forces, and a team of special operations forces. Overall they command a number of separate reconnaissance battalions, three tank brigades, three mechanized brigades (consisting of three mechanized battalions, a combat support battalion and a signal company), a mechanized brigade (consisting of five mechanized battalions), a separate mechanized brigade, two separate infantry battalions, an airborne brigade (composed of three airborne battalions, a combat support battalion and a signal company), and a training tank brigade. Three artillery brigades, three engineering battalions, two military police battalions, a company of sappers, a chemical protection battalion and a brigade of military intelligence provide battlefield support.

The Navy consists of a surface ship group, a submarine group, as well as a battalion of commandos.

The Israeli Air Force consist of two fighter squadrons, five attack squadrons, six mixed fighter-attack squadrons (plus two squadrons in reserve), an ASW squadron, a maritime patrol and support squadron (patrol and transport aircraft, tanker aircraft), two EW squadrons, an AWACS squadron, two squadrons of transport and tanker aircraft, two training squadrons, two squadrons of attack helicopters, four squadrons of transport helicopters, an air ambulance division and three squadrons of UAVs. Additionally, on December 6, Israel officially declared its fleet of nine F-35I warplanes operational.

It is believed that Israel has nuclear weapons. The number of nuclear warheads is debatable, but its delivery vehicles include F-15 and F-16 fighter jets, the Jericho-2 ballistic medium-range missiles, and Dolphin/Tanin class diesel-electric submarines capable of carrying cruise missiles.

There are nine orbital military and dual-purpose satellites:

  • Three Amos-type satellites.
  • One reconnaissance satellite with remote sensing of the Earth of the EROS type, located on the sun-synchronous orbit.
  • Four optical reconnaissance satellites of the Ofeq type (No. 7, 9, 10 and 11), located in the low earth orbit.
  • One radar-reconnaissance satellite of the TecSAR-1 type, located in low earth orbit.

IDF Problems

The IDF at the moment is a unique and astounding combination of nuclear weapons with delivery vehicles, an arsenal of equipment produced in the 1960s and of modern weapons on par with the leading world powers. This combination has its drawbacks and they do not make themselves wait for long.

For example:

  • In September 2016, during the removal of the machine gun from a tank at the training base in Shizafon in the south of Israel several soldiers were severely injured.
  • On 5 October 2016 on the approach to the Ramon airbase in southern Israel the pilot was killed as a result of the ejection from the F-16.
  • In July 2017 during the course of an exercise, due to his own negligence Lieutenant David Golovenchick was shot dead by a soldier.
  • On 8 August 2017 an AH-64 helicopter crashed at the Ramon airbase, as a result the pilot was killed, and others sustained injuries.
  • On 9 August 2017 during IDF operations in the suburbs of Bethlehem, an Israeli soldier suffered wounds of moderate severity as a result of friendly fire.
  • At the end of August 2017 ten soldiers were lightly injured at the Shizafon base in southern Israel after a smoke grenade exploded.
  • At the beginning of September 2017 an Israeli soldier was severely injured by a grenade that exploded during military training on the base in the south of the country.

These incidents indicate that the Israeli military has serious shortcomings in the realm of personnel proficiency and equipment maintenance.

The Gideon Plan

In order to give the IDF the ability to confront modern threats from various armed groups, while implementing budget cuts and minimizing the number of accidents, Israel adopted the five-year Gideon Plan in 2015.

Main Provisions of the Plan:

  • Reduction of the number of professional soldiers and officers to 40,000.
  • Reduction of military service of male draftees from 36 to 32 months. (Reduction of military service of female soldiers from the draft is not considered so far).
  • Reduction of the age of commanders. If the average age of the regiment staff officers, including the commander of the regiment, was 35 to 37 years, now for these positions officers from the age of 32 will be appointed. The staff officers of the brigade, including the brigade commander, 40 to 42 years instead of 45 to 46 years respectively.
  • The reduction in the number of reservists to 100 thousand. The reservists who will remain in service will be trained and armed as support troops.
  • Reducing the number of artillery and light infantry brigades.
  • Eliminating two army divisions.
  • Structures such as the Education Corps, Military Rabbinate, Chief Reserve Officer, the Chief of Staff’s Advisor on Women’s Affairs, Army Radio and the Military Censor must undergo reduction and optimization. The command of the Northern District will be merged with the command of the land forces.
  • Creation of the cyber-troops. Jerusalem Post, citing a senior officer of the IDF, reported at the beginning of 2017 that it was decided to postpone establishing the cyber-troops center.
  • Bolstering of the Navy group through the procurement and construction of surface ships and a submarine.
  • Rearming the Air Force by purchasing the American F-35 and UAVs of American and local production. This includes the retirement of an air-force squadron, and the early retirement of F-16 multirole fighter aircraft.
  • Ending deferment to students in yeshivas (religious high schools) is not mentioned in this plan.

These provisions indicate IDF’s leaders had decided to focus on transforming it from conscript army to a professional one, staffed with a large number of trained soldiers as well as young and promising officers, capable to implement and employ in practice new ideas.  The fact that the command of the Northern District will be united with the command of the land forces indicates that this area (south of Lebanon and Hezbollah) is given special attention. The new army will be armed with more modern equipment and thus will be able to withstand modern threats.

The Israeli Missile Defence Systems vs. the Hezbollah Missile Arsenal

Knowing that Hezbollah will not invade Israel itself, its most capable units are involved in the fighting in Syria, and Hezbollah’s armored forces are in the development stages, for the Israeli military the biggest threat is Hezbollah’s missile arsenal.

Israel has a multi-layer missile defense network, which includes the following systems: Iron Dome, David’s Sling, Arrow and Patriot. Furthermore, a ship-mounted version of Iron Dome [Tamir-Adir] was declared fully operational for use on a gunship off coasts on November 27. However, so far, it has been installed only on one vessel, the Sa’ar 5-class INS Lahav.

Israeli Military Capabilities, Scenarios for the Third Lebanon War

Click to see the full-size image

There are 17 batteries of MIM-23 I-HAWK available for air defence but presumably due to their obsolescence they are not in active service.

For comparison purposes, the cost of Qassam type rockets of Palestinian production according to Israeli experts is in the neighbourhood of a few hundred dollars. Rockets for the BM-21 Grad cost few thousand. The cost of production of ballistic, anti-ship and medium-range missiles is unknown, but may be assumed that they do not exceed several hundred thousand dollars.

Of course, human life is priceless and the potential loss in this case from Grad rockets, not to mention Scud and Iranian missiles, exceeds the cost of the interceptor missile. While the Iron Dome control system will only launch missiles if incoming missiles are calculated to fall in residential areas, the cost balance is still not in Israel’s favor.

Scenarios for the Third Lebanon War

Over time, IDF’s military effectiveness had declined. Israel has won the 1967 fully and unconditionally. The Egyptian and Syrian armies were dealt a powerful blow, and the Golan Heights, the Sinai Peninsula and the western shore of the river Jordan were occupied. The war of 1973 was won by Israel with heavy human and material losses; however, neither the Egyptian nor the Syrian army was completely defeated. In the 1982 war, where the IDF had numerical superiority, it had won a tactical victory but the task of reaching Beirut to link up with the right-wing Christian Phalangists was not completed. In the Second Lebanon War of 2006 due to the overwhelming numerical superiority in men and equipment the IDF managed to occupy key strong points but failed to inflict a decisive defeat on Hezbollah. The frequency of attacks in Israeli territory was not reduced; the units of the IDF became bogged down in the fighting in the settlements and suffered significant losses. There now exists considerable political pressure to reassert IDF’s lost military dominance and, despite the complexity and unpredictability of the situation we may assume the future conflict will feature two sides, IDF and Hezbollah. Based on the bellicose statements of the leadership of the Jewish state, the fighting will be initiated by Israel.

The operation will begin with a massive evacuation of residents from the settlements in the north and center of Israel. Since Hezbollah has agents within the IDF, it will not be possible to keep secret the concentration of troops on the border and a mass evacuation of civilians. Hezbollah units will be ordered to occupy a prepared defensive position and simultaneously open fire on places were IDF units are concentrated. The civilian population of southern Lebanon will most likely be evacuated. IDF will launch massive bombing causing great damage to the social infrastructure and some damage to Hezbollah’s military infrastructure, but without destroying the carefully protected and camouflaged rocket launchers and launch sites.

Hezbollah control and communications systems have elements of redundancy. Consequently, regardless of the use of specialized precision-guided munitions, the command posts and electronic warfare systems will not be paralyzed, maintaining communications including through the use of fibre-optic communications means. IDF discovered that the movement has such equipment during the 2006 war. Smaller units will operate independently, working with open communication channels, using the pre-defined call signs and codes.

Israeli troops will then cross the border of Lebanon, despite the presence of the UN peacekeeping mission in southern Lebanon, beginning a ground operation with the involvement of a greater number of units than in the 2006 war. The IDF troops will occupy commanding heights and begin to prepare for assaults on settlements and actions in the tunnels. The Israelis do not score a quick victory as they suffer heavy losses in built-up areas. The need to secure occupied territory with patrols and checkpoints will cause further losses.

The fact that Israel itself started the war and caused damage to the civilian infrastructure, allows the leadership of the movement to use its missile arsenal on Israeli cities. While Israel’s missile defence systems can successfully intercept the launched missiles, there are not enough of them to blunt the bombardment. The civilian evacuation paralyzes life in the country. As soon IDF’s Iron Dome and other medium-range systems are spent on short-range Hezbollah rockets, the bombardment of Israel with medium-range missiles may commence. Hezbollah’s Iranian solid-fuel rockets do not require much time to prepare for launch and may target the entire territory of Israel, causing further losses.

It is difficult to assess the duration of actions of this war. One thing that seems certain is that Israel shouldn’t count on its rapid conclusion, similar to last September’s exercises. Hezbollah units are stronger and more capable than during the 2006 war, despite the fact that they are fighting in Syria and suffered losses there.

Conclusions

The combination of large-scale exercises and bellicose rhetoric is intended to muster Israeli public support for the aggression against Hezbollah by convincing the public the victory would be swift and bloodless. Instead of restraint based on a sober assessment of relative capabilities, Israeli leaders appear to be in a state of blood lust. In contrast, the Hezbollah has thus far demonstrated restraint and diplomacy.

Underestimating the adversary is always the first step towards a defeat. Such mistakes are paid for with soldiers’ blood and commanders’ careers.  The latest IDF exercises suggest Israeli leaders underestimate the opponent and, more importantly, consider them to be quite dumb. In reality, Hezbollah units will not cross the border. There is no need to provoke the already too nervous neighbor and to suffer losses solely to plant a flag and photograph it for their leader. For Hezbollah, it is easier and safer when the Israeli soldiers come to them. According to the IDF soldiers who served in Gaza and southern Lebanon, it is easier to operate on the plains of Gaza than the mountainous terrain of southern Lebanon. This is a problem for armoured vehicles fighting for control of heights, tunnels, and settlements, where they are exposed to anti-armor weapons.

While the Israeli establishment is in a state of patriotic frenzy, it would be a good time for them to turn to the wisdom of their ancestors. After all, as the old Jewish proverb says: “War is a big swamp, easy to go into but hard to get out”.

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  • AJ

    IDF are only used to killing unarmed kids & protestors – Hezbollah man for man are more than a match for them

    • Avi Schwartz (IDF:71, hamas:0)

      IDF took only <150 casualties in 2006 and managed to eliminate 1000+ Hezbollah fighters. You do the math

      • John

        Jews: thousands of years of experience and unshaken faith……
        Zionists: less than a 150 years of bloodshed and stupidity, to be eventually rewards by total destruction. So there goes your zero for ya.

        • Attrition47

          That’s why zionists want to supplant Judaism; they’re the vilest antisemites left on earth.

          • Jens Holm

            No wonder they are. They are a result and didnt come from nothing. You did.

          • Karen Bartlett

            “A fool’s mouth calls for blows” Proverbs 18:6.

        • Jens Holm

          They are semites like You and brothers of sisters. May I propose You find a Noah, build and ark ans start all over igen.

          And no swimming lessons.

          • John

            I like that Jens. :P

        • John

          Oooooooh, 4 down votes so far. It looks like I have hit bingo with a lot of them here. Thanks for coming into the light, at least part way and showing your colors. Now if you could show an ounce of courage and not hide behind anonymous down voting and actually show your faces, then this would not stand as yet another confirmation of how bad you guys really are. Vacate the snake holes and exit from under the rocks, so the real animals can have their homes back. Come into the light baby.

      • JPS

        You’ve got to be a troll. 15 zio-slugs for every hezbollah warrior, predictably, the zio-slugs retreat in shame, 30,000 defeated by a tiny militia.

        • Avi Schwartz (IDF:71, hamas:0)

          Not true. IDF only used 10,000 troops in that war. And IDF managed to eliminate 500-1000+ hezb militiamen

          • JPS

            Hezbollah remains in its positions stronger than ever. They also have public funerals. IF you people keep drinking the cool-aid, your insane cult is going to end up like Jonestown.

          • <>

            Beirut wll be a good example to the world, honestly we will wipe out that city from the face of the earth with everyone in it. Wait and see.

          • Jacob Wohl’s Nose

            try it then Nose Lover

          • <>

            I would order it if I could, don’t worry Gantz will vaporize that city.

          • AJ

            Then Hezbollah will rain down 100,000 Iranian supplied missiles on Tel Aviv not those crude bottle rockets.

          • Hezbollah currently has 160k. But only 10% of those are needed to destroy Israel. The rest could be used against US assets in the surroundings and the rebels.

          • Gantz gantz gantz, one month, two months, half a year, we’re tired of waiting, kike.

          • <>

            Kenny don’t you follow the news man? Bibi is charged with corruption, it’s over.
            Gantz can and will form a government, I don’t decide the time table.

          • No but you talk like you do decide it, you said wait two months.

          • <>
          • Don’t help me, help the IDF, you will need it.

          • Concrete Mike

            Hahaha, what a genocidal fool that guy is. He is in for a rude awakening.

            Poor little thing.

          • Ewan

            Gantz cannot attack with an army full of Diaper wearing sissies.

          • Concrete Mike

            Yes yes murder more civilians, we know we know. You say it all the fucken time, genocidal maniac!

            Pepperidge Farms Remembers!!

          • <>

            I want us to murder them all if we have to, Israelis come first before Lebanese. Their casualties mean nothing to me, it’s just a meaningless number. I care for Israeli civilians and soldiers, if we need to wipe out a city to save Israelis then we should do it, the aftermath is secondary.

          • Karen Bartlett

            Just like a Nazi.

          • J Ramirez

            Typical baby killer and molester Jews.

          • <>

            Latino shit, go back to Mexico you drug dealer parasite.

          • J Ramirez

            Not latino, try again Jew fuck ;}

          • <>

            Then why do you hide behind a Latino name? piece of shit.

          • J Ramirez

            I don’t hide my name like a bitch ass Jew

          • <>

            Then disappear and don’t talk to me, m0r0n.

          • J Ramirez

            You gonna tell your mommy Im being mean to Jew ;} Go away, stop it , leave me alone, Ha ha ha, So much for the <> . Anyways nice talk, I need to take a shit and flush some Jews down the toilet.

          • <>

            No problem amigo, I’ll be thinking of you the next time I see a dead Pali.

          • Ewan

            says the real zio parasite from the Polish Ghetto?

          • Ewan

            When? You’ve been trying fo 70 years, dream on hasbara troll., or are you waiting for uncle sam to do it, you cowards.

          • Attrition47

            It was 1000+ a minute ago. Massacring women and children is not good training for fighting a well-trained, well-equipped and motivated opponent.

          • Rhodium 10

            in just 2 days hezbollah killed 90 IDF soldiers and destroyed 42 Merkava tanks..its caused the IDF retreat

      • Attrition47

        http://cgsc.contentdm.oclc.org/cdm/ref/collection/p16040coll3/id/204

        We were caught unprepared: the 2006 Hezbollah-Israeli War

        Your dad doesn’t seem to think so.

      • Attrition47

        6.6:1? Even on unreliable zionist statistics, the zionists barely caused pre casualties per capita than in their last pogrom against the Palestinians.

        PS it’s “maths”.

        • Jens Holm

          And SyAF and RuAF only hit civilians too. Even a diaper on a little baby is a white helmet.

          • Karen Bartlett

            That’s a lie.

          • Jens Holm

            Very good example from You in culture as well as language. By that You are of Turkish or Arabic origin.

            You dont understand what I mean beacause Your world too often are limited and more or less are like Our children speak.

            I wont blame You for it, but I will blame kinds like You for telling this and that about mainly european citicen language groups -And You dont – Not at all.

            You are like a car having no automatic breaks, no seatbelts, no airbag, no safecover by steeplates and 3 tons for a small one.

          • Karen Bartlett

            I’m American and Christian. the White Helmets work with terrorists. Everybody who knows anything knows that by now. The SyAAF and the RuAF do not target civilians.They target terrorists. Sometimes civilians are killed b/c terrorists put their weapons depos, etc. in civilian areas, knowing that the Syrian gov’t forces and Russian forces will avoid civilian areas if possible.

      • AJ

        How many of those 1000 eliminated were from air strikes & not battlefield kills. Killing more does’nt equate to better soldiers

      • Taz T

        Isreali Occupation Air Force have killed more than 1000 civilians in indiscriminate bombing from air and when they tried to use the ground forces they got bogged down and lost 159 people mostly military personnels and 79 tanks. They are only good at killing unarmed civilians and children. They are war criminals https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/feb/28/gaza-israel-un-inquiry-killings-protest-war-crimes-army.

        Israeli Report on 2006 war on Lebanon admits failure of Israeli Military
        Retired Israeli Supreme Court Justice Eliahu Winograd said in a

        speech presenting his report that Israel must seek peace with its

        neighbors.

        “At the same time, seeking peace or managing the conflict must come

        from a position of social, political and military strength, and through

        the ability and willingness to fight for the state, its values and the

        security of its population even in the absence of peace.”

        About 1,200 Lebanese, mostly civilians, and 159 Israelis, mostly

        soldiers, were killed in the war, which Israel launched after Hizbullah

        fighters captured two Israeli soldiers and killed three in a

        cross-border raid.

        Siniora also said the report did not mention the war’s cost on

        Lebanon. Israel pounded the Hizbullah bastions of southern Beirut and

        South Lebanon with aircraft, warships and artillery. It also hit other

        parts of the country.

        Hizbullah fired about 4,000 rockets into northern Israel.

        “The report does not contain any mention of the crimes Israel

        committed against Lebanon … or of the massacres against civilians … the

        report also doesn’t mention huge destruction to infrastructure, most of

        which was hospitals, schools, places of worship, bridges and residential

        buildings,” Siniora added.

        In his latest speech on the occasion of Ashura early in January,

        Nasrallah said he doubted Israel had the political and military

        leadership and qualified army to launch a new war on Lebanon

        • Jens Holm

          A way to reduce thos arap music ones are to make less children and stop using them as spendables.

          You calculate and calculate 1 by 1, but You forget they have to kill at least 10 everytime they loose one to keep the balance.

          Whats in arabic “lets go have fun and make some more spendables ?

          • Taz T

            Obviously you are not smart enough to understand the point. Israeli army as basically useless and only good at killing unarmed civilians. They can not fight on the ground and they use airforce to indiscriminately bomb the civilians and you are trying to justify their war crimes by talking about population and because the can not fight and lost 159 troops they need to kill 1000 civilans. They are cowards otherwise they would have stayed and finished off the Hezbollah instead of putting their tails beween their legs and running away. As for population your lot have moved from Eastern Europe and now trying to decide how many kids other people should have, the best thing will be for your lot to pack up and go back to their original homelands. I bet they all have duall nationality just in case and by the way Orthodox Jews have more children than any other people in Middle East.

          • Karen Bartlett

            Orthodox Jews as far as I know are generally Anti-Zionist. They see Israel as an illegal state, founded by atheists and going against the Torah. They support the rights of the Palestinians and are appalled at the actions of the criminal Zionists against Palestinian civilians. Israel persecutes Orthodox Jews in Israel.
            https://youtu.be/E8mb5cd7GNE?t=37

      • 1000?! Lmao, those were civilians, kike troll, casualties were 1:1.

      • Ashok Varma

        That is usual nonsense. Israel lost every encounter with Hezbollah despite bombing Lebanese civilians and killing a 1000 women and children. Hezbollah combat losses would barely be a few dozen.

        • Jens Holm

          And the border was moved? No it wasnt. What a great Victory. Ypu get no Victory unless You name Your babies that.

          • Concrete Mike

            Israel invades and the border did not move, if that is not a victory for lebanon, repelling israeli aggression then i dont know what is.

            Then israel starting bombing Beirut’s civilian infrastructure. Stop making excuses for the IDF pigs and their morronic supporters!

          • <>

            Hey piggy, what will you say next war when we flatten that entire country? don’t cry to the U.N please, I promise you we won’t ask for a ceasefire.

      • Ewan

        liar liar Yamulka on fire.

    • Jens Holm

      But they are easy to see. Most of them only has one leg.

  • Karen Bartlett

    Israel has some of its forces diverted in attacking Palestinian civilians, policing, arresting, guarding and torturing Palestinian political prisoners and infiltrating other countries via Mossad. So they can’t concentrate all of their army (which consists anyway in green troops only used to shooting unarmed civilians) on Lebanon. Besides, “Lebanon aggression” is simply Israeli propaganda. Israel is the aggressor in the ME, along with its allies, the US and Saudi Arabia. Finally, the State of Israel and allies are evil, and God will win.

  • verner

    yep and once the alliance of israeli enemies consolidate their armed forces israel is toast and the squatters will be on the run – no two ways about it.

    it might serve a purpose to attack hezbollah while the syrian war is still ongoing but it will be a temporary relief and the joint force of the alliance will be hot on the trail and also it might prove to be a bridge too far for the squatters, that hezbollah will be more prepared than the wishful thinking in tel aviv warrants and thus be adding to the catastrophic result of the syrian war.

  • R PLobo

    The anglo/zionists had to send in mercs to occupy Syria – that speaks volumes to the state of the iof and US forces.

  • Avi Schwartz (IDF:71, hamas:0)

    Biased analysis. Everyone knows IDF won the first Lebanon War in 1982, the second one in 2006, and will definitely win the third one in the future.

  • chris chuba

    Unknowns … 1. how many thermobaric bombs and tactical nukes does Israel possess. Israel wants to obliterate Hezbollah but not take any losses. They will use a concentration of weapons never used in combat before to clearcut Southern Lebanon and silence the missiles, regardless of the cost to civilian lives, infrastructure and without provocation. They will also try to make themselves look like the victim while doing this. 2. Have they conditioned the U.S. MSM enough to go along with their narrative of events.

    • Attrition47

      Like in Poland and the western USSR? It isn’t the missiles that the zionist antisemites and their imperial paymaster American Caesar want to silence, they are quiet all ready. They want to keep the Middle East in constant flux, using ultraviolence as a catalyst, same as always.

  • JPS

    If Israel had won in 2006 (hahahahhahahha) we wouldn’t be having this discussion. They know they can’t fight their own battles, non-conventional weapons will be setting up WWIII, the world isn’t going to tolerate the kikes anymore if they do that.

  • <>

    Chop chop, after the 3rd Lebanese war no one will talk about the 4th one, there will be no Lebanon.

    • LR captain

      Israeli would be paralyzed but only for 3 days , then it would make push into southern Lebanon.
      these are reasons why,

      -Hezbollah target roads ammo depots,and military equipment.

      -Hezbollah twice as many missile launchers then Israeli has interception launchers

      -Hezbollah also has precision missiles as iran just sent 100 manuals on making them by car.
      So the first blood damage would but Israel on defensive.

      However, let talk reason, The IDF would in a likely hood have a number troops in reinforced bunkers. So a infantry and light armor attack won’t work, and their won’t be an invasion of northern israel.

      Most likely that would be the state for 3 days while a rapid attack force is put together is at the point, Zion your CO would hand you back your old uniform.

      -while yes drone air strike would be dealt to Hezbollah i think the stingers and manpads would down a few drones and helicopters so, air strikes at high altitude would be the most common form of air support.

      Now i the professionalism of the IDF is not an issue however the leader ship of the top brass are. They want a quick end but that type of thinking leads to a column of Merkava tank being lost. Plus if they commit to few personnel. Hezbollah cells not be cleared and will regroup to strike at rear of Israeli lines.

      The main threat to IDF that Hezbollah has is experience launching offensives in Syria. Before small disorganized counter attacks would not pose a threat to IDF supply lines. But an organized attack supported with mortars,snipers and infantry would cause serous damage. Where the Top brass may order a small force to chase them off leading ambushes.

      • <>

        I actually liked that analysis! both sides would have big casualties, no doubt.

        • LR captain

          what part? also mine or south front’s?

          • <>

            Yours :)

          • LR captain

            i try best to account for both sides, i realize that victory condition for Israeli is the destruction of Hezbollah’s missile stockpiles infrastructure for making new missiles, While Hezbollah victory condition is to bleed IDF out of south Lebanon and force it to withdraw.

            Those who know what victory is then fight will achieve it, while those who fighting for victory will never attain it. – zun zu

    • Ewan

      True, only one big PALESTINE, with all kikes dead or sailing to back to Europe

  • Attrition47

    How dare you refer to the zionist occupation of Palestine as a Jewish state? There’s nothing Jewish about zionism.

    • Jens Holm

      Its an important part. Its confirmed by their elections a few days ago.

      Your head must be accupied by NO FACTS ALLOWED.

    • Karen Bartlett

      True. The current state of Israel was founded by atheists (and terrorists). Their intention was to be as least Jewish as possible, in fact. And they’ve succeeded in that. They’re more like Saudi terrorists.

  • Jacob Wohl’s Nose

    Next time ISISrael illegally attacks Syria, SAA should respond with a barrage of Tochka missiles against kike military bases in Golan/northern Palestine. SAA have 150+ tochkas, they can launch only 5-10 at the same time and at least 25% will make it through and completely wipe out the juden rat bases

    • <>

      Bring it on, I wanna see the IDF invade and take Damescus too.

      • AJ

        Not very smart to invade Syria then have to fight Hezbollah as well

        • <>

          What are you guys don’t getting? we can fight 3 fronts at the same time if we have to, that would just mean we will end the war faster and just wipe out city after city. Try us.

          • Jacob Wohl’s Nose
          • <>

            What’s wrong with that picture? I tell you. You can clearly see me aiming my beautiful M-4 into his German head and pushing the trigger. no helmet would help that fucker :)

          • LR captain

            Hey zion get ready to laugh sorry jacob Wohl’s nose it was to funny not to

            https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/fa67bface1759b3dfebdf3f03213a7f763c209ff1671a75247c337b19733a112.png

          • Jacob Wohl’s Nose

            Atta boy, Iron! ngl bro we may disagree a lot but in the end we’re all human so it’s always good to have a nice laugh here and there

          • Jacob Wohl’s Nose

            If you invade Syria, you will be fighting Hezbollah in 2 fronts (Lebanon and Syria) so good luck with that. Also IRGC will be attacking from eastern Syria/western Iraq. dude, kike land would be utterly smashed, it wont be good for anyone involved. Lots of Hesbollah videos would be showed destroying merkavas and ambushing diaper soldiers though

          • <>

            The bigger they come, the harder they fall. Maybe we could use our really heavy toys for a change…

          • Ewan

            Heavy Toys? you mean push the US army ahead of you?

          • Not even the US army can take on Iran, I can see a hundred thousand dead troops as clear as this.

          • Jens Holm

            Hesbollah os not able to male 2 fronts. They also is no match in the open.
            The worst problem there is the many houses and probatly a lot of mines.

          • Ok add Yemeni Houthis to that ;)
            https://twitter.com/MEMRIReports/status/1197514393220788224
            You saw what they did to Saudi Arabia, right?

          • <>

            Why should I add apes that were skipped by evolution? I mean, just look at them.

          • Lmao a kike telling someone about how they look, with your big nose, google “happy merchant” ;)

          • <>

            I have small nose man :)

          • Oh you’re that Iraqi jew I remember

          • <>

            Yup!

          • Ewan

            So he’s daddy is Saddam? LoL, that figures

          • Ewan

            Small nose? …Who did Your mama screw then? Are you really a Jew then?

      • Jens Holm

        Russians wont allow that. Israel can take it. But keep ? Maybee.

      • Concrete Mike

        I suppose since you black clad minions didnt succed in 2015, you want to do the job yourself now?

        Come on coward, we are waiting.

        All you do i lob missiles from.lebanon over to syria,hiding behind civilian airliners, trying to get civilians shot down by air defenses.

        Big fucken cowards! Go play with benchpreas now.

        • <>

          What’s wrong with that? using the airfroce is the best option. No israelis die only spendable Arabs, that is great!

    • Jens Holm

      Try with warwidows. Assads has so many of them.

  • Redadmiral

    Beginning to look like the Syrian Government is loosing faith in their Russian Saviours. There are strong rumours that the Syrian Minister of Defence has sent a team of negotiators to China to discuss the purchase of the HQ-9 air defence system. “FD-2000 (Fang Dun 2000) export version of HQ-9. It is a long-range air defense missile system. It was first publicly revealed in 2012. This system has an extra anti-stealth capability. The FD-2000 has been exported to Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan”.http://military-today.com/missiles/hq9.htm AMN News is also reporting on this as I write. Thee S300s which Russia gave to Syria have proved useless as they are integrated into the Russian ADS and from my understanding from what I have read SAA Air Defence are not allowed to target IDF aircraft. So, whatever agreement Russia had with IsraHell, the Jew boys have broken and continue to break, while Russia apparently fails to allow a Syrian response.

    • Jens Holm

      Maybee the Chinese will send them 2 million urigurians:)

  • Jens Holm

    At line 4 the article says Israeliens are hysterical – and I stopped.

  • Omega

    Scenario of 2006 in the words of Mossad and Shin Bet:

    Even more revealing were the comments by Mossad Chief, Meir Degan, and the head of Shin Bet, Yuval Diskin, during a meeting with Prime Minister Olmert in the immediate aftermath of the war. Both men pointedly told Olmert “the war was a national catastrophe and Israel suffered a critical blow.

    https://www.armyupress.army.mil/Portals/7/combat-studies-institute/csi-books/we-were-caught-unprepared.pdf

  • Ewan

    Here’s the real deal. Southfront’s somewhat shy reporting above of Hezbollah’s real achievements and Israel’s real failure allows Hasbara trolls like Jens and Avi et al to spew more BS and lies.Ultimately, the proof of the pudding is in the eating…and the IDF has not attacked lebanon since 2006…just PU$$Yfooting with minor skirmishes, ‘cos they know they gonna get their asses handed to them, AGAIN.

    Truth be told, the Pu$$Y IDF ground forces could not get more than 5km into South Leb…beyond bint Jbeil. Their tanks were decimated (upwards of 75 were either destroyed or incapacitated) along with the myth of an invincible IDF, by a guerilla army that deployed no more than 2000 men, had NO airforce, navy or artillery, no satellites or US Bunker busters or iron Dome, whilst the mighty Kike army was literally caught with their pants down in the closing hours of the war trying to land a heli with troops at the Litani river for a propaganda photo – op, when the amazing brave Hezb shot up their rat ass tails as well. btw, Israel mobilised UPWARDS of 60 000 men. Don’t take my word for it, checkout MI5 operative, Alastair Crooke’s beautiful article :

    https://www.counterpunch.org/2006/10/13/how-hezbollah-defeated-israel-2/

    Anyhow, the Hasbro twins, Jens and Avi are outta their depth again, with their sh!tfaced lies, but even the US military admitted the IDF got SERVED.

    So, the only viable way of kicking 2500 poor Hezb guerillas is…..getting help from Uncle Sam, that other prolific loser in all things warfare.

    Looks like Brooklyn slums and Polish ghettos are gonna be filled with fake Jews high tailing their way back to their REAL motherland once the 3rd and final Lebanon war gets underway.

    Jens and Avi, I hope Y’all not buried too deep in your Tel Aviv bunker’s c.’cos the Hezb are a coming