More details reveal in Navalny-gate. Germany, and the collective West continue to accuse Russia in the poisoning of opposition politic, while Russia has denied all charges and admits the possibility of provocations by Western intelligence agencies. Numerous accusations from both sides have a direct impact not only on the countries ‘ relations in the international arena, but also, and particularly, on economic trends.
On September 2, the German government reported that the results of a toxicological examination conducted by the Bundeswehr laboratory in Munich had shown the presence of traces of Novichok poison in Navalny’s body. Clinical studies indicate that Navalny was poisoned with a substance from the group of active ingredients of cholinesterase inhibitors. Meanwhile, the exact substance remains unveiled.
Russia, in turn, after conducting various tests, says that there are no toxic substances in Navalny’s bio material.
According to the chief toxicologist of the Omsk region, where Navalny was taken immediately after his health deteriorated, Russian doctors would have recorded damage to the politician’s liver, kidneys and lungs. Navalny’s health deterioration, according to Sabayev, could be triggered by alcohol, diet, stress or overwork.
The reaction to the statement about Navalny’s poisoning was not long in coming.
The leader of the “Green” party in the German Parliament called Navalny’s poisoning an “assassination attempt” and asked for the construction of the Nord stream 2 gas pipeline to be abandoned. However, the German government asked not to link the two issues. The US Senate also called for stopping the construction of the gas pipeline.
The German government said it would work out a common position on the situation with the EU and NATO. NATO, the EU, the UK, Austria, Lithuania, and Ukraine called on the Russian authorities to investigate what happened to Navalny.
“It is impossible to impose unsubstantiated sanctions against Russia because of Navalny poisoning,” the Austrian foreign Ministry said.
The situation was also commented by NATO Secretary General.
Jens Stoltenberg said: “NATO countries are discussing possible measures in connection with the incident with Navalny, but it is not yet possible to say what they will be.”
In fact, it is difficult to imagine how the military-political bloc could react to the possible poisoning of a Russian citizen, given that diplomatic contacts between Russia and representatives of the Organization are reduced to zero. Almost the only link between Russia and NATO today is the joint exercises in the Mediterranean between Russia and Turkey, a NATO member.
While political elites are debating who should take responsibility for the poisoning, third parties are happy to actually benefit from Navalny-gate.
After Merkel’s statement, the ruble fell in a matter of hours on the foreign exchange market by more than 1.5 rubles per dollar, that is, by 2% of its value. On September 2, the dollar and euro jumped to the highest mark since August 27 –75.5 rubles and 89.27 rubles, respectively.
The ruble was already influenced by the statement of the US State Department about possible sanctions against Russia in case of military intervention in the situation in Belarus, and the information about the poisoning of Navalny was a second blow.
At the same time, the sanctions agenda will remain in the news stream for another two or three months, until the US elections, and will influence investor sentiment.
According to various experts, the Russian experience has shown that the market reaction to geopolitical risks is short-term — up to a month. However, such forecasts are not the most negative.
Against the backdrop of the sharp fall in the ruble, many analysts noted the unusual behavior of a number of large traders associated with the Pro-Western part of the Russian bureaucracy. There is a sense of coordinated action with accurate information about the time and event that should have been the start of downward pressure on the ruble. Apparently, some individuals managed to earn multimillion-dollar profits from this scam.
The very personality of Alexey Navalny also plays a significant role in the current situation.
By the nature of his activities, Navalny is a media businessman. He does not pose a significant threat to the current government, unlike other businessmen. Navalny’s TV shows are quite popular and probably have customers who receive considerable benefits. After all, it is very unlikely that Navalny conducts his company at his own expense.
Since the poisoning of Navalny is not relevant, but also to a large extent unprofitable to the Russian government, it seems possible to suspect the culpability of actors associated with his business. This can be true in the case if Navalny was really poisoned.
Business is dangerous, far more dangerous than politics.
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- To Nobody’s Surprise, Navalny Was Allegedly Poisoned With Novichok