Syria Escalation Scenarios: US Military Options, Russian Responses

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The situation in Syria is set to explode into a new big war.

On April 11, US President Donald Trump once again showed off his twitter-style diplomacy and threatened the Assad government and Russian forces in Syria with missiles. A day earlier, Russia’s envoy to Lebanon Alexander Zasypkin said that Russia affirms its  right to shoot down missiles and to target the launchers in the case of an attack on Syria.

These statements became became the latest in a chain of events, which started on April 7, when allegedly a chemical attack took place in Douma. Immediately following the incident, the US and its allies accused the Assad government of being behind the alleged attack and started drawing up plans for a military action.

Considering the current state of affairs, it is highly likely that Washington will implement a military option, without waiting for the results of any potential international investigation. In this case, this would result in four main possible scenarios of the escalation:

The 1st scenario. The US will conduct a Shayrat-style missile strike on some almost empty Syrian military facility somewhere in the desert. Thus, Washington will burn millions of dollars for another PR move. In this case, there will likely be no Russian military response. The conflict in Syria will continue along its current lines. Pro-government forces will clear the remaining pockets. The Syrian-Iranian-Russian alliance will continue contributing military and diplomatic efforts to restore Syrian territorial integrity.

The 2nd scenario. The US will expand the scale of its attack, increasing the offensive means as well as the affected targets. This attack will cause notable casualties among Syrian service members and damage to the country’s military and possibly civilian infrastructure. If Russia does not respond to this attack militarily, the US-led block may develop momentum forcing its proxies to launch attacks on government forces in the Euphrates Valley as well as in eastern and southern Syria. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (formerly Jabhat al-Nusra, the Syrian branch of al-Qaeda) and ISIS will re-activate their cells across the country. Moscow will react to this with precision attacks seeking to avoid a military confrontation with the US-led bloc. The end of the war in Syria could be delayed for another 5 long years.

The 3rd scenario. The US will conduct an expanded attack, but will face a limited yet effective Russian military response. In this case, Russian forces will respond by shooting down Trump’s “smart” missiles, targeting some of the launchers involved in the attack and maybe some US military installations in northern and eastern Syria. Washington will use the limited confrontation to increase diplomatic and media pressure on Russia. It will also become a formal pretext for a new wave of anti-Russian sanctions. This will be useful for the US-led bloc because the so-called Skripal case, which has been designed to be such a pretext, has just collapsed.

The 4th scenario. The US will conduct an expanded attack, but a Russian military response will trigger further escalation between the two world powers. Justifying its actions with so-called Russian aggression, US forces will attack the Russian military group in Syria. This will be the start of a new regional war between the US-led bloc, including the UK and France, and the Syrian-Iranian-Russian alliance supported by Hezbollah. Such regional conflicts were repeatedly observed in the 20th century. In the worst case scenario, this regional war may turn into a nuclear conflict.

While publicly the US justifies its possible military aggression against Syria with the need to respond to the alleged chemical weapons use in Douma, there are two groups of real reasons behind the scene:

  1. The war will draw the attention of US society away from internal problems. Currently the US is facing a serious political and security crisis. Society is divided by political, economic and ethnic issues. The US administration is under constant pressure from its opponents. Since the start of 2018 alone, mass shootings in the US have already killed more people than the April 7 Douma incident.
  2. The war will allow to explain to US taxpayers the increased expenditure on the US Armed Forces and the military-industrial complex. The increased defense spending will also permit to the US economy to resume stable growth in the framework of the existing world economic paradigm.

Additionally, the Euro-Atlantic elites are attempting to use developments over the conflict in Syria to save the US-led unipolar world order and the so-called Western value system that allows them to remain in power.

The doomsday clock is ticking.

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  • Dr. Ronald Cutburth

    The US government is controlled by atheist Zionist including Atheist Zionis Nazi Israel. They are in a corner with likely destruction of the Israel state. On the global view its like Its like the Russian people are living next door to a Paranoid Schizophrenic Homicidal Maniac who has serial murdered millions all over the world. I AM NOT A Robot.

    • neil barron

      No the U.S. is controlled by people like you Deep Swamp sewage. We who elected Trump fully understand the Obama pentagon general in Odumbos tearing down the country tyranny. Quit making excuses. We are working hard to clean out crap like you. You would do well to read what Cicero had to say on this issue.

      • beh51

        The US is a Israeli/Jewish puppet , it has been for years, decades actually going back to when the government let Wall st. Jews take control of the world’s money supply via the establishment of the Privately owned Federal reserve bank. Trump is just another one of their puppets and it is impossible for a president or congress person to get elected if they are not Israeli puppets, google Cynthia Mckinney. Israel also exerts it’s influence via wall st. Goldman Saks banker /robbers hold many high or ruling positions in the West , the prime minister of Australia is a Golman crook. So yes every war in the middle East since 9/11 has been organised by and prosecuted for Israel not the US. The US has been destroyed financially and socially by the Israeli parasite and will eventually suck the country completely dry and then discard it.

        • neil barron

          Oh God not another one those people!

    • schiamachy

      You ruin your post with the Zionist Nazi Israel type comments. Calling people names destroys your credibility.
      Yes the AIPAC and Jewish Congress members do wield a big influence but the reality is that the US military and security agencies whose role is to push American business interests is the real enemy of all people including ordinary Americans. We need to target and expose the perpetrators of international thuggery and not focus on their guard dogs.

      • Wanklord

        SouthFrontards (Putin cheerleaders & russophiles) are looking stupider by the hour due to their idiotic comments.

        Russia’s strategy in Syria is already proving to be a total failure since all Assad forces, IRGC, Russian mercenaries and Hezbollah are now forced to seek shelter (while abandoning their current positions) due to the impending US/NATO attack.

        US/NATO PSYCHOLOGICAL WARFARE AT THEIR BEST: just the simple threat that Tomahawk cruise missiles are on their way is forcing the Russian dysfunctional-coalition to irreversibly alter their plans, leaving behind all the military gains they have achieved in recent months.

        • Eouz Cuemarz

          And how long have been the US so called anti-terrorism campaign in Syria going on without any success and clear objectives? You admire the dotard leader oF the freeworld aren’t you? Lol

          • Andreas Bersatz

            The “free world” is always under the USA diktat, isn’t? LOL

      • 888mladen .

        So what’s Vatican’s role in all these? Where do they belong?

  • neil barron

    This report was stolen from Elijah J. Mangier.

    • Pave Way IV

      Have a link by any chance? I don’t see it on his site.

      • neil barron

        https://www.alraimedia.com/Home/Details?id=d65d4323-2f55-4e40-8ca3-abc952347544 His analysis are translated into multiple languages you may have to scroll down for english,

      • neil barron

        The two superpower countries are walking on the edge of the abyss in Syria

        by Elijah J Magnier

        SYRIAN-WAR Just trying to make sure you get there.

      • neil barron

        New post on Elijah J. Magnier | ايليا ج مغناير

        The US secret plan on Damascus foiled: the Russian role before and after the US/UK/France attack revealed

        by Elijah J Magnier

        Screen Shot 2018-04-14 at 18.20.47

        By Elijah J. Magnier – @ejmalrai

        Donald Trump was climbed down from the tree he climbed up a few days ago when he gathered a large military force and firepower similar to “operation desert storm” (but without ground forces). “Plan A” consisted of a destructive attack on Syria to destroy its army, presidential palace, command and control bases, elite force, strategic military and ammunition warehouses, radar, defence systems and political leadership institutions.

        Prior to the triple attack on Syria by the US – UK – France, intensive contacts were carried out by Russia and President Vladimir Putin himself – at around 04:00 am– to reduce the attack and go to a softer, less significant “Plan B”.

        Russia, in its contact with several heads of state, rejected any hit that could cripple the Syrian Army and instructed the leadership in Damascus that the West would now think very carefully before radically changing the balance of power in the Levant.

        But what is the real reason behind the US – UK – France’s attack? Is it the claim of the “chemical attack” on Duma? The Organisation for the prohibition of the chemical weapons is already in Damascus and its members visit Duma this Saturday to inspect the location where the claimed use of a chemical attack was alleged to have taken place. Why not wait for the results?

        Sources in Damascus explain that the Syrian Army and its allies, supported by Russia, were carrying out a large attack on rural Idlib and had reached Abu al-Duhur airport when, all of a sudden, the military operation stopped. The entire spearhead force was moved to Ghouta. What happened?

        Russia had informed the Syrian leadership of a large gathering of forces at Al-Tanf US-occupied military base on the Syrian-Iraqi borders, where tens of thousands of US proxies have received continuous military training. The Russians identified unusual military movements and understood that the US was preparing to push Syrian proxy forces to reach eastern Ghouta, linking itself with around 30,000 jihadists in Ghouta itself. This attack was planned to take place simultaneously with a diversion from Daraa, southern Syria, attacking south of Damascus so as to deceive the Syrian army and its allies into leaving smaller forces around the capital.

        DaufDzDWkAAeaCWSyrian Research centre bombed by US/UK/France

        The US plan – said the sources – consisted in supporting its proxies and the Ghouta jihadists to reach Damascus and take full control of it. But the shifting of the military operation from rural Idlib to Ghouta spoiled the US plan to impose on Russia an enforced stay in Lattakia and Tartous confined to a limited place, and to finally change the Syrian regime. This “genius’s plan” would have spoiled all Russia’s efforts deployed through almost three years of heavy involvement in the war in Syria, and would have given the US the upper hand , just at the moment when Moscow and the Syrian Army were about to end the war, with only few more pockets left to liberate.

        Russia’s hit in Ghouta broke the US plan into pieces, and imposed the withdrawal of tens of thousands of militants from Ghouta along with their families, to the north of Syria. The capital is now much safer, with the remaining area south of Damascus occupied by Al-Qaeda and the “Islamic State” group (ISIS) in Yarmouk camp and al-Hajar al-Aswad.

        Today Russia rendered the US – UK – France strike meaningless, both in respect of its content and its objectives. Russia was able to impose that US – UK – France carry out only a “limited attack” of little value, and with not much chance of altering the reality on the ground in Syria.

        When Russia vowed to shoot down missiles fired at Syria, Trump answered: “Get ready Russia because they will be coming, nice, new and smart”. Russia, after the hit, replied: “We have used the old Soviet anti-Air defence system against these smart, new and very expensive missiles fired by the Americans”. Not only that, the US-UK air strikes hit objectives which Israel bombards almost on a regular basis. By showing the capability to stop two thirds – as declared by Russia – of the incoming missiles, Syria is taking it as a kind of “training with live ammunition against any future Israeli attack on Syrian territory”. Israel is very disappointed and seems not at all pleased with this end result.

        Showing restrain and control, the US Secretary of Defence James Mattis – he who said “the Pentagon still has no independent evidence to confirm that there was a chemical weapons attack in Syria last week”-contested any wide scale attack on Syria that could have triggered a direct Russian involvement and deadly return of fire against US objectives. Mattis accepted “an honourable strike” to save his boss’s inexperienced face. In point of fact, the trio’s strike on Syria seems have boosted the Syrian Bashar al-Assad’s reputation: the population celebrated in the streets of Damascus, and mocked the western attack on their country!

        The trio avoided at all times direct provocation of Russia, circumvented Russian bases and operational theatres instead of overflying. Russia imposed its presence and provoked the US and French navy by carrying out a simulated air attack, to show its willingness to hit back. The Russian navy was positioned opposite the Lebanese coast to cover that angle and avoid blind spots.

        Moscow managed to avoid a direct confrontation with Washington outside its territory: US military bases surround Syria (Israel, Jordan, al-Tanf, al-Hasaka, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrein, Iraq, Turkey). Russia remembers how Mikhail Gorbachev fell into the CIA’s trap in 1979, supporting the Mujahedeen six months prior to the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan- trap. Zbigniew Brzenzinski said the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan was deliberately provoked by the US: “It was an excellent idea. It drew the Soviets into the Afghan war and we gave them Vietnam”. Putin has avoided the same US trap almost 40 years later.

        manar-08991100015237035819

        What is the next step?

        All eyes are directed on the northern city of Idlib controlled by al-Qaeda now that the fate of Damascus is secured. But why Idlib?

        The situation in Yarmouk camp, south of Damascus, seems directly linked to that of Fua and Kfarya. During the Zabadani negotiation, it was agreed between al-Qaeda and Damascus’s allies to keep away from al-Yarmouk, in exchange for the two besieged cities in the north of Syria. However, Damascus is now pushing to clean the capital completely, attempting to persuade its allies to bypass previous commitments.

        As far as Daraa and Quneitra in the south are concerned, it seems no one in Syria seems willing to provoke the US and Israel at this tense moment; this will maybe be left to the end. In al-Badiyah, the Syrian steppes, ISIS is totally surrounded and can only wait to be exterminated in the coming months.

        Idlib remains despite the Turkish-Russian-Iranian economical and financial agreement. There is no doubt about the existence of strong differences of an economic nature between partners over Syria.

        Turkish President Erdogan expressed his support and later satisfaction with the US strikes on Syria. Russia answered by asking him to deliver the city of Afrin to the Syrian government. Iran’s special envoy for Syrian affairs Ali Akbar Velayati overtly stated that the next objective is Idlib. Therefore, it is now feasible for Turkey to pull out of its dozen observation bases around Idlib, even as Russia pulled out of Afrin prior to the Turkish attack. And Russia expects Erdogan to cancel the previously agreed sale of the S-400 missiles any day.

        Thus, the compass points to Idlib, Rastan, Jisr al-Shoughour and the Syrian Army forces gathering in rural Lattakia, ready to divide Idlib after liberating the many villages around it.

        This will bring the world to the next “chemical attack” appointment in the next operational theatre of the Syrian army and its allies. Would the US stand by al-Qaeda? Why not? It has never really been a question of the use of chemical weapons, since the US holds the largest stockpile of chemical weapons worldwide: the real issue is the defeat of the US faced with the dominance of Russia over the Levant.

        Proof read by: Maurice Brasher

        If you read this reporting and you like it, please don’t feel embarrassed to contribute and help fund it for as little as 1 Euro. Your contribution, however small will help ensure its continuity. Thank you.

        Elijah J Magnier | 15th April 2018 at 5:32 am | Categories: Articles in English, Middle East Politics | URL: https://wp.me/p47Jgd-N6

  • Brad Isherwood

    Numerous websites ( pro Russian)…. are pushing Propoganda that’s it’s acceptable for Trump to do cruise missile strike if he gives Putin notice ahead of time.

    Syria lost aircraft. ..had hangers destroyed, ..other assets at Shyrat airbase.
    Innocent Syrians were killed when cruise missiles missed primary and hit them

    It’s BS make Syrians play Russian Roulette!

    How about Putin give Syrian new jets to replace what gets sacrificed for Putin’s partner Trump.

    Ya…not happening.

    • Jesus

      Forget the websites, Putin does not have to entertain foolish notions to appease a bully, let the bullies eat their words, and show the world the buffoons they are.

  • Jesus

    Russia is strong from a conventional and nuclear standpoint, its forces in Syria in conjunction with forces in south Russia along with its allies constitute a force to be reckoned with. Russian strong advantage consist of EW warfare, air defenses, anti ship attack weapons, surface to surface missiles…..and of course, boots on the ground in the form of the Syrian army and IRCG units.
    Nato’s naval forces would be limited to carrier task forces that will not dare to get close to Syrian coastline and old Tomahak ALCM that is of little value against Russian EW technology and point defenses.

    Nato’s naval doctrine based on carriers task forces that are useful against countries that cannot defend themselves well, however, carrier task forces become paper tigers against strong missile superiority on part of the Russians that can render them useless. Hypersonic missile KH 32 along with the new Khinzahl hypersonic weapon, along with Zircon and Kh 101 render Aegis defenses useless.

    • Brad Isherwood

      Russia has Area denial Jamming that can crush cruise missile attack.
      Question is….will they turn it on?

      Syria’s Airdefence is only decent at point defence.
      Iran may have some area Jamming. ..
      Possibly the system at T4 was destroyed by IAF in recent attack.
      I’m not sure if Syria has any decent area denial Jamming systems to cover Airbases.

      Syria has a capable Bastion coastal defence system..
      Israel and US would most definitely want to hit that.
      Syria can move the units. ..they are mobile.
      It’s a game of last sat coverage for target package.

      Syria has maybe 22 Su 24mks, …Maybe 24 upgraded Mig 29s.
      They loose these in Trump’s Lunatic shock and awe, …Syria will be really screwed.
      Have next to nothing to challenge Israel.

      Russia gave Syria some retired T64m tanks…a few Older T 90s.
      Syria’s Airforce is getting parts and bombs,…yet nothing new vs losses and accidents or worn out.

      If Syria has to defend against 1,2 or 3 Cruise missile attacks, …and depending on which target sites are selected, ..on their own. ..each event turn will reduce Syrian military to where ISUS and
      FSA can strike .

      At least Syria has time to prepare…..unless missiles are on the way as of now.
      It’s frustrating to watch them get beat up continually by Israel and the US.
      I’m hoping Putin in the very least gets His area Jamming up vs the Cruise missile strike.
      That would give Syria a fair chance to get thru this BS

      • Promitheas Apollonious

        Syria is not alone and selectively taking a pixel and analyze it dont show you to be very intelligent in reading the picture.

        I also dont think the UK/Usrael has the b*lls required to attack Syria and allies. As for you assuming that Syria is alone in this and not with Russia and Iran, shows you not to be, aware of reality, same as the ones who plan to attack Syria are not.

        Maybe russia humor the morons as long they stay farting as they did with Iran for over 30 years and Nkorea, lately. I truly wish the morons to make the mistake, even if it means WW3. One of this days is over due to happen so it may as well happen while we still can fight back and we not too old or dead of old age.

        I have yet to see more pathetic morons than NATO and US and this time also US should not remain unharmed. As long they think are invisible and can go to other peoples homelands and destroy them with out paying any price, themselves beside losing expendable hardware and soldiers that come 5 to the dime, this destruction of earth will continue until is nothing left.

        • Brad Isherwood

          Israel attack Syria for 6 years…
          Several years…Numerous Airbases. .When Russian air defence was in place.
          Putin do nothing! ….

          Repeat for the mentally challenged……Putin do nothing!

          Recent IAF attack T4 airbase,
          Russian Radar can see IAF taking off in Israel.
          S 400 do nothing……Just more birdshit to clean off.
          Iran’s technical assets at T4 get clobbered, …maybe area Jamming system, …who knows.
          Iranians get killed
          IAF flys off to enjoy bagels and smoked salmon,

          Putin does nothing.

          There is a % probability Putin will not intervene to stop/block a massed cruise missile strike by US.
          Maybe He will….
          That’d be Excellent.
          However….recent events show he is afraid to counter Israel.
          That’s truly disturbing. ..
          Tiny little Israel intimidates the Bear.

        • Ted

          Turns out British pilots have the balls, Tornados over Damascus! Maybe if Turkey buys an s400 we will see if they work.

          • Promitheas Apollonious

            do they?

      • Jesus

        You are speaking like Syria will have to defend herself on its own, Russia intervened to help them defeat the NATO proxiy armies trying to overthrow Assad, they were involved in combat to destroy ISIS and the other terrorist armies; now that the proxie armies have been defeated and compressed in Idlib, the real enemies of Syria are showing their teeth.
        Russia will continue to exert its military presence like it did for th east 2.5 years in defeating Syria’s enemies.

        Trumps shock and awe will not work in Syria like it did in Iraq, shock and awe is just a publicity stunt without much military substance to it, it provides Hollywood with delusional material.

      • 888mladen .

        This is an assessment of the military capabilities of RU grouping in SY by president of the Academy of Geopolitical Problems, Doctor of Military Sciences, Captain 1 rank Konstantin Sivkov

        “At the same time, from the military-strategic point of view, the Russian
        grouping in Syria is an isolated grouping with unsecured communications,
        surrounded by enemy bases with large operational capacity.
        Let me remind you that in addition to the Turkish base Injirlik,
        Americans have bases in Saudi Arabia, plus they can operate from Israeli
        airbases. Therefore, for the US, it is not a problem to create a tactical grouping that is ten times larger than the Russian one.

        Do not forget the strike aircraft carrier group of the United States, which is moving now to Syria. Even one aircraft carrier has an air group that is about twice as powerful as the Syrian group of the Russian Air Force. Plus, the carrier group has 200-300 cruise missiles.
        Simply put, the Russian group in Syria, in the event of a military
        confrontation with the United States, has no chance to survive.”

        Source:
        http://svpressa.ru/war21/article/197728/?cba=1

        At the end he gives his forecast of likely scenario of coming FUKUS missile strike on SY.

        “I think the United States will strike at purely Syrian targets, and the
        Russians will only strike if US threatens Russia servicemen and ships. I’m not concerned about American missiles, I think, if we shoot them down, the US will calmly look at it.”

  • Alessio Simonato

    so..whot? west action destabilized the govern??? and this is a good moment to propaganda? noo noooo…go away..please .
    by procedural :
    1) retrive any evidence of chemical use
    2) find the aggressor
    3) stop him
    (in this case i put onu on a corner)
    and this on fast time..
    fast at the same mode of the rest of war…
    how many days you need for do that?
    a fucking week?
    a ong?
    some people alive and not baby?
    a small group of soliders , a bag?
    a medic alive?
    if you find one point on twu days , you win a small village of local people not insurgents.

    there are a lot of generals army active in this moment…
    english , french , ruski , americans , iranian , …and ….syrians …and nobody …can retrive evidence in a week?

    and assad thinks to propaganda…
    yea ..beautifull dreams!

    on television today go on a happy peoples after destruction , but nobody can find a fucking civil injured and recover a small bag of blood..
    i can’t belive that.

    go go away…
    you go away before this story finish similar to an ex govern on afghanistam in the ’90
    please.

    • Fred Dozer
    • by procedural?
      You can smell chlorine, if you were there on the spot. But you were not.
      Exactly a year ago, Nikki Haley at the security council shouted that sarin made by Assad was used in Idlib on April 5 showing the photos of poor kids, a day after the alleged incident. Then, 59 missiles were shot two days later on April 7.
      Procedure.
      1) You must collect body samples such as blood and urine.
      2) You must extract substances and concentrate them.
      3) You must have gas chromatography equipment to bring into check with control samples.

      We have excellent analysts in this particular area in Japan but it takes at least 5 days for the identification. We are not living in a magic world. No one in this world can tell the substance within three days.
      And even if you can identify it in 7 to 10 days, you can’t tell who made that material. Never.
      Thus, Haley’s allegation was simply a lie and any further decision based on the lie is the lie.
      This is the procedural truth.

      And some one who lies without knowing procedural basics is most likely to lie one after another. This is a behavioral pattern.

      • neil barron

        I can only say or write “Where’s the evidence ?”
        To your comment I felt as I do now didn’t believe it and no evidence.
        Thank You! for the primer. May I use this Procedure you laid out?
        May I ask your knowledge on this?

        • As I had been in pesticide business for a long time as a new product development manager, I am very familiar with the procedure and you can say this anywhere with confidence.

          • neil barron

            Thank you on both counts. I did a quick perusal of the book or white paper ? It seems pretty succinct to me and I can assure you I will read it all. It may take me awhile to do it but it’s what I do self educating.
            I’m liking the back and forth with Alessio Simonato and I have to understand that. In other words wrap my brain around all this.
            Hideo if I may, your english is better than ah 50 % of Americans and your writing is fine.
            Now from your indications you’re anti war with misgivings. Myself a hawk all my life, with reasoning. The reason I wrote you is to find about the gas situation because it’s pretty clear it was false flag. The white helmet guys are know for years to be party to the terrorist i’ve seen to many of their videos and you can see right through them.
            Thank you for you time and hopefully I can contact you if needed.

        • For my credibility, please read my research although my English is not good. This is to put cold water on war mongers to stop the war. Actually a bit scary cover up.
          http://p.booklog.jp/book/120295/read

      • Alessio Simonato

        and this is a problem, if nobody is able to execute a procedure, or to have it performed, then the weapons convention has failed.
        and with it every government fails.
        and therefore every citizen.
        weapons in general.
        but these strong powers, which are not so strong if they can not even determine the state of death of a mass of civilians, despite having instruments and funding for beacon, while having reassured for decades the populations that repeatedly fall victim to a conflict, then it makes no sense to discuss justice.
        I know very well that the unconventional use of armaments only leads to entangling the situation, I do not dispute the fact that it has been used or not, it is clear that there are corpses. I intend to deepen the system by which the use is justified, and how this is possible ..
        the behavior of governments following events, and the total lack of responsibility on the part of producers …
        Is it possible that no chemical weapons company ever ended up under arrest?
        possible that they are all clandestine?
        noo
        here, in this balance between government and the production of unconventional armaments, I willingly accept armed intervention as a despotic solution to a potentially catastrophic situation.
        fortunately it is not necessary that I breathe sarin to know that my life is worth little, I already poison me every day with cigarettes, as long as I buy them …
        and so logical.

        • “if nobody is able to execute a procedure, or to have it performed, then the weapons convention has failed.”

          The primary purpose of investigation is to take samples and analyse. I repeat without analysis no body can tell the substance.
          Back in 2013 when Obama stopped aerial bombing, British investigators after the analysis reported that the used sarin had too much impurities beyond the level of industrial manufacturing meaning the strong possibility of home made one.

        • I smoke, too. It contains polonium, dangerous alpha emitter but its melting point is lower than the temperature of lit tobacco and alpha wave does not go through a paper. I am not worried too much about it. Tar? As I have smoked for a long time, it may be too late to stop smoking now.

          • Alessio Simonato

            I suppose the domestic production of an unconventional weapon is likely to be feasible as the production of a “homemade” automatic rifle in Afghanistan is feasible, but I have serious doubts about the countermeasures in these cases the large-scale bombing is misleading, I am sure that there are companies specialized in the production and assembly of such devices, the duties and sanctions contribute to affecting some sectors, but in an overly approximate manner and are seen by the population as a sort of spite, in the long term they are also condemned by the adhering economies to due to a market failure. believe me that I absolutely do not question the use of non-conventional weapons contrary to what the international treaty states, in fact I do not find it appropriate to use as a main lever to discern the right from the wrong only through a fallible system of assessment and forensic investigation of the battlefield.
            too unstable to direct public opinion towards a univocal purpose.
            whole districts and cities are razed to the ground most of the time using armaments stationary in deposits of at least 20 0 30 years if not more, especially in remote bombing, and this makes me assume that there is a real economy intrinsic to the war, which sees the flow of production at its peak in moments of peace and quiet, here is perhaps the attention of the “public” about the untrue treaties and armaments unconventional should be redirected to these companies, not only during a guerrilla or when a photographer frames a child with purple lips, but daily, with a precise and healthy purpose, while at present we ride the wave of propaganda of this or that another political spokesman who in fact has more interest in moving the arms economy than in stopping a freight train without brakes. observing in the various posts not only of this site I realize that most people exalts technical details of armaments that I frankly call obsolete or even improper, not to mention the tears that daily pour the public from the equator down current state sees a battle last for over 2000 years including Africa, these people now speak of spells and divine condemnations that are the result of the unfolding of the facts!
            and the facts are not magic and evil, but incompetence, corruption, fake markets, crimes, slaves “human beings slaves” !!!! in 2018 … god .. lack of respect, and then of course the fucking fuel, the yellow stones! guys … we’re going to get pissed off for a fucking yellow stone! stuff that only human beings can do!
            a dog, a cat or a mouse, does not make this mistake.
            so here I think it is appropriate to investigate directly on arms manufacturers and not to analyze dead voiceless. I mean this

  • Alessio Simonato

    ah assad also speaks for the whole Arab world !!! but in the meantime this is the third case in three years of Syrian people being gassed … but what the fuck …
    I do not find that the Arabs in the free time throw gas bottles in the yard to have a laugh … unless you want to do propaganda to use civilians as insurgent sacs.
    the Arab people have 2 or 3 priorities like me, eat , sleep, work and have children, and do not play with the family of nerves gas.
    then a good govern can find a solution on a day or twu. three days are too much for wole people of the world.

    • Joe

      Three times in three years you read western media I supposed.

      Have you noted the all of them disproved and if really happened should be blamed on the rebels that did it and if US or your friends are so holy and concerned about the few people gassed but have no hesitation to kill even more people than those gassed (if true) in supposedly ON MORAL GROUNDS.

      NOW NOW… IF ASSAD did it, he will be bombed. Now when rebels proven to have done it, why are they immune from attacks AND CONTINUE to be protected? Somehow rebels using CW are okay?

      hypocrites

      • Alessio Simonato

        699/5000
        yes, war is hypocrisy on every side that looks at it, with and without gas, true. I think. but closer to a war there is a government … my question is:
        when is it time to do propaganda and when is it time to leave?
        while for the military and governmental technical aspects:
        qunto it takes to analyze a fact and make it credible to the world?
        these are the powers that lead a government to govern, true or false.
        if there are no similar premises, I will not govern.
        if there is no government there will be war.
        if there is also war injustice.
        I know.
        I also know that the missiles and the bullets are not absolutely intelligent, and that a civilian of a soldier dies before during the war, I know.

  • Joe

    One thing the video assumes that without Russian air cover , Syria with Iran , Hez, and iraqi volunteers cannot defend Syria. This is not true and in fact , look at Yemen, Lebanon 2006, as long as Syrians have the will to save their country , not even US can feel safe in Syria let alone able to divide Syria.

    Of course that is assumed Russia is powerless which is not and with SAMs and manpads, US planes cannot fly too. Even with Manpads, US planes must fly high which would be ineffective against Houthis style solders with lots of ATGMs .

    See if I am right in the unlikely event this will happen that US dare to strike Syria with Russia /Iran full support.

    For your info, my take is that IRAN would be the most important factor if Syria survives as Iran has direct land corridor to Syria and maintain it . Iran can mobilise millions of fighters just from militia alone.
    and Iran can fully armed all foot soldiers with latest infantry armaments.

    Look at US, all surrounded and imposssible to resupply. They would be dead meat if US strikes.

  • Manuel Flores Escobar

    Today the guardian wrote that Russia was ready to attack British base in Cyprus in case of launch cruise missile to Syria….in fact Russia doesnt trust the intentions of US coalition…and even they can warn Russia of the targets….US coalition can attack Russian base “by mistake” ( runways) as they always attack under lies and fake chemica attack!…therefore Russia will counterattack when the first tomahawk have been launched….then Russia will attack vs warships with Kilo class Subs and Fighter jets ( antiship missile) as well as US base in Jordan( where US aircraft&French are deployed to avoid an airstrike with air to ground missile like Israel do).. meanwhile Iran star to launch ballistic missile vs Qatar centcom base and bahrein navy fleet HQ….and to close Ormuz strait….the question is can politics or media stop military machine?…if failed then Nuclear war is coming!

    • Ted

      or they can sit back and take a beating which it turns out so far as to be there only move. There is no counter attack US French and British jets fly Syria at will, unopposed.

  • Icarus Tanović

    How many times we will bite same bait?
    Same story over and over again.
    If Syria/Assad did this we will attack and fire cruise, smart and whatever missiles.
    I’m not sure do you guys have so short memory, while back in Obama administration they threaten, to do this and that, draw red lines and all kind of nonsense.
    Get together, guys. They are just doing show with all of this and barking.
    If they wanted something, they surely would attack as of now.

  • peter

    Readers , is normal , that responsible president big country as usa send message to Russian people
    -you waiting our nice and clever rockets-?!!
    Trumo and his geriatric congres are right killers , and they need preventive nuclear inpact . I speaking
    this with all resposibility ! USA and NATO , are world terorists !! 1.3 mil.civilians killed only in Irak and milions
    killed all around the world !! And these fucking coutries want do order with Syrian friends Russian Federation ?? The world is big underfucking ! sorry grammar.

    • Ricky Miller

      I understand and share your wrath. NATO and the USA enjoy invading small countries 1/10 their average size, with 1/15th their average population and 1/25 their average economic size. Without being attacked by them or even getting authorized by the security council, per treaty. They are cowardly bullies, plain and simple. There’s nothing like putting on the uniform of the United States of America and going out to beat on the weakest kids on the playground and shake them down for their lunch money…

  • Eouz Cuemarz

    The US is quick to accuse Assad and forgot to see the blood on its own hand.

  • JustPassingThrough

    i don’t think the author of this article understands the situation.
    i don’t think he understands what it means that “missiles and platforms will be targeted.”
    i don’t think he has listened to the warnings.
    i don’t think he has read POTRF Putin’s last speech.
    i don’t think he has removed his rose-colored glasses.

    the author reminds of what the boy-king macaronni said the other day when he said FR would attack Syria but he hoped the Russians would not attack him. …strictly hollywood.

    if it is the u.s., uk, and fr. coalition. (where is big mouth poland, these days?)
    each of the 3 will be subject to attack. and if bibi did not get the msg from Pres. Putin’s phone call the other day, we will see the candy-*ss idf meet an enemy that doesn’t throw stones.

    FR is going to “fly from home.” how cozy. The return flights should be interesting, empty magazines, refueling. All air traffic in EU-land at a halt. No natural gas. This is end of empire for FR. It has forgotten its humiliation in the last 2 wars. It is soon to have the opportunity to remember them again. They have killed enough people in the ME to keep jihad alive within their borders for decades to come. The boy king should be hung out to dry. As an ex-Rotschild banker, probably with an israeli passport there is no question that he could ever be a Frenchman.

    This will be the UK’s last engagement on the world scene. It has few worthwhile military assets and no fuel.. The banks are leaving for DE. The Rotschilds will squeeze the last farthing out of this pile of rock. Scotland will probably break away. And its over. Westminster will be walled off as a padeophile playground using robotic sex-toys imported from china to entertain parliament and W. Disney will design a theme-park setting. Admission will be charged being the only source of income. The ordinary folk will remain so. Prince Hairy will don his NSA uniform and perform in the park for pennies.

    Pompous Pompeo, John Bolt-loose, Quickey Nickey will be joined by Madeline Not-so-bright to mourn the loss of the missile destroyers, and most of the carrier group in the atlantic while D.T. will be fed hamburgers with russian sauce while in a straitjacket. the ami people won’t be aware of anything that has happened because there was not enough advertising money alloted to the MSM comedy shows to present the debacle. g. sorryass will organize a riot in support of detente with drug lords that are taking over the west and soutwest of the united states of aggression.

    bibi and his bozos will probably be overrun by hezbollah and hamas. the wailing wall will live up to its name and the diaspora will start all over again.

    the point is that the above scenarios are just as likely as the ones the author proposes. 😸

  • Why don’t you think about Mr. Putin’s scenario or strategy for the World Cup to go with no boycotting?
    Any physical confrontation, if happened, would give US allies the good reason not to send players.

    There must have been some serious strategic mistakes on US side because Carrier Strike Groups won’t be in time. I first thought that May 13 will be the date for the US parallel wars in Middle East, East Europe and South China Sea. May 13 is the most likely date for the US to break away from Iran Nuclear Agreement.
    Also a large number of tanks on the military train were observed at La Grange on April 4, which I thought would be shipped to Europe.

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/70f313451ea1e98646e03169bf52c8ca3f28cccf31a95963c1f6ed42a064e7a0.jpg

  • Kell McBanned
  • Mo

    Hard fact is: One S-400 battery, few Pantsir-S and half dismantled Syrian air defense system; against a swarm of over 2000 smart missiles followed by an intense air raid is hardly a match for a US strike group. Ships will be out of reach of all land missiles and no aircraft can get close. US will not allow Russia to send, or even field any more air defense systems. Any retaliation on behalf of Russia will give it the same faith as Syria. Putin wont do anything more than a though talk. And my opinion is: “I have never liked Putin anyways, and I have a feeling that even Assad will agree with me soon”. War is hell, may god bring peace.

  • Hide Behind

    Russia knows the rules, he has years of international political experience, he will not directly or indirectly confront US and allies, and acts stupified, terrorized and petrified when ever Israel enters fray.
    PUTIN’S MILITARY MADE DEAL!;
    AS long as US and allies do not mess with Russian forces. The US NATO group can bomb, strafe and and kill all Syrians they want.
    WORDS ARE IMPORTANT! AND BULL….IN US MEDIA IS FROM ASS END.
    No way did Russia and Iran say they would retaliate if US forces bombed heck out of Damasus and elsewhere, only if their forces directly attacked would be grounds for counter move.
    Pay attention to Putin’s words. Stop parroting MSN media lines

  • EL ZORRO

    Only the most imbecile and stupid leader will threaten and intimidate a NUCLEAR ARM SUPER POWER in public, by using a fabricated FALSE FLAG, in the MSM.

  • Rodney Loder

    Hard to believe that what just took place was it, 30 cruise fired 10 shot down, I heard my pals in Russia the anti-Christian block are saying it was a Show Trial without a victim giving the galvanizing effect of a trial without any disruption to the Party.

    Great response from Putin, his blood is worth bottling.

  • no international investigation?
    make me suspect that the once in a thousand year earthquake in japan that has caused the nuke crisis that polluted the pacific ocean is done by america’s HAARP tectonic weapon.

    btw, the other cheonan s.korea warship incident was found, by way of frequency analysis of the recordings, to be caused by the ship being rammed by another ship(uss nuke sub columbia?).