Syrian War: How Defeat Of ISIS Changes Prospects Of Conflict

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The liberation of al-Bukamal become another turning point marking the start of a new phase in the Syrian conflict. ISIS has lost all important cities, which it used to control in Syria, thus becoming just a terrorist group rather than a terrorist state.

The terrorist group still controls some villages in an area between al-Bukamal and Deir Ezzor, a part of the border between Syria and Iraq, a part of the Yarmouk Refugee Camp in Damascus and a chunk of territory near the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.

Many ISIS members are now fleeing the country in an attempt to reach safe havens around the world. The remaining terrorists will be involved in a guerilla war against the Syrian government and US-backed forces.

Now, Syria could be divided into 7 sectors controlled by various parties:

  1. The Syrian government, backed by its allies – Iran, Hezbollah and Russia, controls the biggest part of the country, including the cities of Aleppo, Hama, Homs, Deir Ezzor, Damascus, Latakia, as-Suwayda and Tartus. However, the militant-held pockets inside the government-held area pose a significant security threat. The situation is especially complicated in Eastern Ghouta and the Yarmouk Refugee Camp. The pockets of Bayt Jinn, Jayrud and Rastan are relatively calm.
  2. The situation is complicated in Daraa where Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (formerly Jabhat al-Nusra, the Syrian branch of al-Qaeda) and its allies are in control of a part of the provincial capital. The Russia-US de-escalation zone agreement in southern Syria allowed the intensity of fighting there to decrease. Despite this, clashes erupt from time to time in Daraa city and near the Golan Heights. Militants in southern Syria are mostly backed by Jordan, the US and Israel. Tel Aviv often uses tensions in the area to justify its strikes against Syrian forces and describes its support to local militants as a humanitarian assistance to the local population. It is interesting to note that Israel has no problems with the ISIS-linked Khalid ibn al-Walid Army, which operates near its forces. The so-called local armed opposition does not seek to fight ISIS there either.
  3. The at-Tanf area on the Syrian-Iraqi border is controlled by the US-led coalition and a few US-backed Free Syrian Army (FSA) groups. FSA units are concentrated around the US garrison at at-Tanf and in the nearby refugee camp. The US says that it needs this garrison to fight ISIS while in fact it is just preventing Syria and Iraq from using the Damascus-Baghdad highway as a supply line. US forces respond with airstrikes and shelling to any Syrian Arab Army (SAA) attempts to reach at-Tanf.
  4. Northeastern Syria, including the cities of Raqqa, Tabqah, Hasakah and a part of Qamishli, is controlled by the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Kurdish militias YPG and YPJ are a core of the SDF and the Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) de-facto controls this area. A notable number of US military facilities and troops in this area are an important factor contributing to the SDF’s confidence. Some aggressive SDF statements against Damascus can serve as an illustration of this fact.
  5. Northwestern Syria is also controlled by the SDF. However, the US influence in this area is lower and local Kurdish militias maintain better military relations with the Syrian-Iranian-Russian alliance. They also face more pressure from Turkey and its proxies.
  6. Turkey and pro-Turkish militant groups control a chunk of the border area, including al-Bab, Azaz and Jarabulus, in northern Syria. Ankara has a strong position there and pro-Turkish militants have repeatedly clashed with SDF members near Tall Rifat.
  7. Turkish forces are also deployed at the contact line with the SDF in the province of Idlib. However, almost the entire province is still controlled by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). This means that Ankara and the terrorist group have reached a kind of agreement over the deployment of the Turkish troops. Ankara actively uses various militant groups to pressure Kurdish forces, which it sees a part of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK). The PKK operates in Turkey and northern Iraq and has been seeking for a long time to establish an independent Kurdish state there.

Clashes of various intensity between the SAA and HTS have been ongoing in northern and northeastern Hama since October. This clearly shows that the Idlib de-escalation agreement is not working and creates HTS positions in the area, which will be an obvious target for the expected SAA operation after ISIS is driven out from the rest of villages in the Euphrates Valley. According to pro-government sources, the SAA has already started redeploying elite units from Deir Ezzor to Hama.

Experts believe that the mid-term SAA goal there is to further expand buffer zone along the Ithriyah-Khanaser-Aleppo highway and to liberate Abu ad-Duhur. This will allow to shorten frontline and increase a concentration of troops and equipment on the contact line when the so-called opposition decides that it’s time to negotiate.

Another possible hot point is Daraa. Local militants will resume their military activity in the city if they see that their Idlib counterparts have become a target of a large-scale SAA operation.

Now, Russia, the US, Turkey, Iran and Syria are increasing their diplomatic activity in order to find a way, which could allow work to start on developing a final political settlement of the crisis. They all have objective limits to their influence on the ground and some contradictory goals. This complicates the situation, especially amid a lack of strategic vision from the US which, according even to American experts, has no long-term strategy for Syria. The US elites and their Israeli and Saudi counterparts are especially dissatisfied with the strengthened position of Hezbollah and Iran.

If the sides are not able to find common ground in the nearest future, the conflict may easily give rise to a new round of violence.

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  • Zainab Ali

    the situation in syria has improved a lot after the military success of syria and her true allies – as for the presence of zio satanic terrorists created by the nwo seems to be a threat to future safety, syria is able to rise again and win with help from hezbollah, irgc and russia

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  • Brad Isherwood

    The US has since the Corporations of Sugar and Military Industrial Complex decided that nations holding world property are game to overturn and exploit.
    The British East India company of the 1700s ( Masonic corporation),….pillaged India,Afghanistan, China later…guns and Opium go every direction.
    US follow same agenda drive everyone out of former Spanish holdings to central America and then post WW 2….we’re ever lots of Opium is.
    US Democratic party is funded by Foreign Narcotics racket,…While Republican is more Military corporate.
    US in Afghanistan now 16 years. …guns and Opium go every direction.
    Opium use globally is 10 fold increase.
    Kurds along with Turk Fatullah Gulen network CIA Afghanistan Opium routes to Europe.
    French crime lost their control over the old Colonial Lebanon,Syria,Turk narcotics racket.
    CIA will fly Opium around via V 22 Ospreys from Kurd bases in Syria.
    Gen Smedley Butler who wrote War is a Racket commented that Al Capone had action in a city,
    Where as Butler was couping and chaos on 3 Continents.
    Putin will have to spend Trillions $ to make US and it’s racketeering leave Syria .
    He’s not likely to do so,….expect grinning Uncle Shlomo to be around.

    • You can call me Al

      Just remember that Putin doesn’t spend Trillions, maybe hundreds of millions rubbles, but he is also testing weapons in all battle cases as well + of course selling the successful ones on.

      Give it a month or so and you could be right, but I think their shall be some new tactics now.

      The video is excellent, alight depressing, but you learn from your mistakes – also extremely important.

      • Brad Isherwood

        Some of the Masonic /Corporation history mentioned links to our day.
        Fake War on Terror was just excuse to tumble nations,increase Opium racketeering.
        Rothschilds Central Bank/IMF seize nations banking.
        Military Industrial Complex. ….most of the major powers live in that money.
        The R&D/compete side needs conflicts and places to test weapons.
        US with 800 Military bases worldwide game to lock up Russia and China and squeeze them into submission.
        Putin and Xi already know this, …hence the Eurasia /OBOR.
        This forces US to attack that….
        Napoleon and Hitler learned the hard way ….you can’t take that area of the World and keep it.
        When/If Putin steps aside and let’s Iran knock IAF down. …this will signal big shift in the
        Masonic game…as Israhell has for decades got away with just about everything ,
        Except the agenda to tumble 7 nations in 5 years is not happening now.
        War is attrition ratios. …Syria and Iraq being old mechanized vs ATGM and stand off strike Munis.
        In a future setting…..USN ships will be going to the bottom,while 100s of Pilots experience the Martin Baker moment.
        US and Israeli public are no way ready for that day : )

    • Jonathan Cohen

      ABORTION RIGHTS IN TAL-RIFAT!

  • You can call me Al

    So – not so much good news today hey; well, many of us told you this months, if not a year plus ago.

    So here are my ideas (stupid or not):

    1. Make sure you know which side the Turks are on and if they dick around, threaten nuclear annihilation.

    2. SWW – the Eastern Huta and the refuge camp – sort it out NOW. From 1 min 25 seconds, we all told you to clear them and consolidate. as stated SORT IT OUT NOW.

    3. Problem 2 near the big noses for now. Surround the area and make sure they do not advance picking off a couple a night with cancel the de-escalation zone and eliminate them all if needs be.

    4. Al Tanf- eliminate it all with the Father of all bombs.

    5. Assist Turkey + pro- Turkish militants to take out SDF and the other Kurds.

    6. blah blah until it is time to negotiate – Syria and Russia have been negotiating non-stop, agreeing some BS that the US backed vermin ignore – TAKE THEM OUT AND NO NEGOTIATION AT ALL.

    7. The Final Diplomatic settlement is that Syria is a whole Country and you can see the devious nature of these vermin by the imminent war on The Lebanon and maybe even Iran.

    Russia and Syria, Iran and Hezbollah and other allies, earned the greatest respect from the Worlds population – don’t throw it away PLEASE.

    ELIMINATE THEM.

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    • Jonathan Cohen

      I found my mistake, I mistook a Q for an O on the map. The months old supply route runs thorough Al-Zqof, not Al-Zouf; https://duckduckgo.com/?q=Al-Zquf+Syria+supply+route&atb=v88-7_f&ia=web , making any Al-Bukamal or Al-Tanf supply route from Iran redundant and unnecessary.

      • You can call me Al

        Thank you I think.

        I am not messing around, I managed to get quite confused (my fault) regards East of the Euphrates… before that, I thought I had it sussed… I’ll wait until the SF video update and then I’ll get my head back straight.

  • gustavo

    Russia aerospace force can give enough protection and support to ground troops to clear all these pockets, it is time to do that, I hope Russia do not pretend to go back home now. New war is starting against USA-puppets pockets.

  • Manuel Flores Escobar

    The question is what are going to do the US Israel puppet army of terrorist?..they have lost ISIS and need to play vs SAA and Iran/Hezbollah with the other cards ( AL Qaeda and Kurds)…I bet a war Israel/ Saudis/USA vs IRAN!…

  • Jonathan Cohen

    Destroying ISIS should come first, so I am disappointed with any redeployment of troops from the the T2 area to Hama while ISIS still holds territory. Such forces should come from Ukraine or Korea instead (from both sides).

  • Rommell43

    Clearly, the Russians are fantasizing about some future stable post ISIS arrangement. However, it is doubtful the seven separately controlled regions of Syria can coexist for more than a few days without warring against each other, especially when you consider the only legitimate (under International Law) governing body in Syria is the Assad regime. All the rest constitute criminal invasive forces mostly protected by the might of the US and Israel. If the US is not forced to leave Syria, there will be no peace and Russia will have to choose again to go home or stay and fight. This will mean ground forces in Syria for Russia. It’s a big step and big price. Russia will go home.