The Saker: “Did Trump Just Cancel a Potential Double-War?”

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The Saker: "Did Trump Just Cancel a Potential Double-War?"

ILLUSTRATIVE IMAGE (Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post)

Written by The Saker; Originally appeared at The Unz Review

At this time of writing, it is too early to declare the danger over, but at least three out of five Iranian tankers have made it safely to Venezuela (confirmation from TeleSur and PressTV). Furthermore, while we should never say “never”, it appears exceedingly unlikely that the US would let three tankers pass only to then try to impede the arrival of the other two. So it ain’t over until its over, but as of right now things look way better than last week.

Besides, this is mostly a symbolic issue. While these 5 tankers will make a difference, it won’t be a huge one, especially considering the devastating consequences which the US sanctions, sabotage and subversion have inflicted on Venezuela.

Still, symbols are important, if only because they create a precedent. In fact, I would argue that the latest climbdown by Trump is no different than all his other climbdowns: Trump has had a very consistent record of threatening fire and brimstone before quietly deflating walking away. And since he did that many times now, we have to wonder whether this strategy is effective or not?

One could argue that this strategy could be described by saying that you put the maximum pressure on the other side in the hope that the bluff will entice the adversary to fold. This could be a semi-credible argument where it not for a very simple but crucial problem: so far the other guys have never folded. In other words, Trump’s bluff has been called over and over again, and each time Trump had to quietly deflate.

Some will say that this only proves that Trump is truly a peace-loving President who, unlike his predecessors, does not want to go to war. But then, what about the cruise missile strikes on Syria? What about the murder of Soleimani?

Truth be told, the kindest thing we can say about this strategy (assuming that it is a strategy to begin with, not the evidence of a total lack of one) is that it is tantamount to yelling “fire!” in a crowded movie theater: the fact that Trump did not set any movie theater ablaze hardly justifies his yelling “fire” in such a dangerous environment. The perfect example of this kind of irresponsible behavior is the murder of General Soleimani which truly brought the US and Iran a millimeter away from a real, full-scale war.

Furthermore, while I salute Trump’s climbing down following the Iranian strikes, I also believe that in doing so he hurt the international image of the US. Why? Think about this: this is the first time ever (if I am not mistaken) that the US was the object of a major military strike coming from another state-actor and did not retaliate. In the past and until this Spring, the US always held the view that if anybody dares to mess with it this would result in very serious consequences. Thus the US upheld a world order in which some where a lot more equal than others. Specifically, “others” had to meekly accept US strikes and shut up whereas Uncle Shmuel could strike left and right and expect no retaliation.

By “accepting” the Iranian counter-strike, Trump did essentially place an “equal” sign between Iran and the US. He probably never understood that, but in the region this was understood by all.

Just as Hezbollah destroyed the myth of Israeli impunity, Iran destroyed the myth of US impunity.

Still, I will always prefer the politician who does not start a war (for whatever reason) to one who would. I also have no doubt whatsoever that Hillary would have started one, or even several, wars. But the fact that Hillary would have been even worse than Trump is hardly a reason to start fawning about Trump’s brilliant “5D chess” genius or peace-loving policies…

Trump reminds of a guy pointing a gun a people in the street only to later say “but it was a toy gun, I never meant to really shoot anybody”. This is definitely better than shooting people with a real gun, but this is hardly a sign of maturity or intelligence.

The other problem with this “strategy” (let’s assume for argument’s sake that this is a strategy of some kind): each time the “indispensable nation” and “sole hyperpower” has to climb down, it increasingly looks like a paper tiger. Not looking like such a paper tiger is probably the mean reason behind Michael Ledeen’s famous wordsEvery ten years or so, the United States needs to pick up some small crappy little country and throw it against the wall, just to show the world we mean business“. In a strictly evil and imperialistic sense, Ledeen’s strategy makes a lot more sense than what Trump has been doing.

The Saker: "Did Trump Just Cancel a Potential Double-War?"

As Marx famously said, “History repeats itself, first as tragedy, second as farce“. The outcome of what some now call the “Battle of Macuto Bay” is a perfect example of this: if the Bay of Pigs was the “root case” then the disaster in Grenada was the tragedy and the Battle of Macuto Bay the real farce.

Humor can be a devastating weapon and anybody who has studied the late Soviet Union (in the late Brezhnev years and after) knows how the Russian people ridiculed the Soviet leaders with literally thousands of jokes.

A real imperialist would much rather be hated than ridiculed, and while Trump himself probably does not realize that he is the laughingstock of the planet, his aides and deep state bosses most definitely do and that is very, very dangerous.


Because the pressure to, once again, “ pick up some small crappy little country and throw it against the wall” increases with each climbdown (see my article “Each “Click” Brings Us One Step Closer to the “Bang!” for a fuller discussion of this).

Besides, finding an even smaller and weaker country than Venezuela will be hard (maybe the Island of Saba? or Grenada again? who knows?). And potentially very dangerous.

The other problem is predictability. Any international system requires that its most powerful actors be predictable. In contrast, when a major international actors acts in what appears to be unpredictable, irrational or irresponsible manner, this puts the entire stability of the system at risk.

This, by the way, is also why it is so disastrous that the US has withdrawn from so many international organizations or treaties: the participation in international organizations and treaties indicate that the US is willing to play by the same rules as everybody else. The fact that the US is ditching so many of its former international obligations only shows that the US has gone rogue and is from now on totally unpredictable.

Finally, there are also lessons for Moscow here, the main one being that when confronted with a determined adversary, the Empire tries to bluff, but eventually folds. True, Moscow has to be much more careful than Tehran simply because the consequences of a US-Russian war would be dramatically worse than even a major conflict in the Middle-East. Yet it is also true that over the past years the Russian armed forces did have the time to prepare for such a conflict and that now Russia is ready for pretty much anything the US could try to throw at her, at least in purely military terms.

In contrast to the military posture of Russia, the political environment in Russia has changed for the worse: there is now a potentially very dangerous “hardline” opposition to Putin which I have christened the “6th column”, as opposed to the liberal and pro-western 5th column. What these two “columns” have in common is that they both will categorically oppose pretty much anything and everything Putin does. The 6th column, in particular, has a seething hatred for Putin which is even more rabid than what the liberal 5th column usually express. Check out this excellent video by Ruslan Ostashko, who prefers the term “emo-Marxists” and who very accurately describes these folks. Whether we think of them as 6th-columnists or emo-Marxists does not matter, what matters is that these folks are eager to act like a soundboard for any and all anti-Putin rumors and fakes. While Putin certainly has his flaws, and while the economic policies of the Medvedev, and now Mishustin, government are a far cry from what most Russians would want, it is also true that these two “columns” are objectively doing the bidding of the Empire, which could present a real problem if the current pandemic-induced economic crisis in Russia is not tackled more effectively by the government.

I have always said that Iran, while being much weaker than Russia, has consistently shown much more courage in its dealings with the Empire than Russia. Furthermore, Iran’s policies are primarily dictated by moral and spiritual considerations (like in the case of Iran’s principled stance on occupied Palestine) while Russian policies are much more “pragmatic” (which is really a euphemism for self-serving). But then, Iran is an Islamic Republic whereas Russia still has to develop some kind of unifying and original worldview.


For all his innumerable negative character traits and other flaws, it remains true that Trump has not launched a major war (so far). Yes, he has brought the world to the brink several times, but so far he has not plunged the world into a major conflict. How much of the credit for this truly should go personally to him is very debatable (maybe cooler heads in the military prevailed, I think of folks like General Mattis who, reportedly, was the one who stopped the US from seriously attacking Syria and settled for a symbolic strike). Some Russian analysts (Andrei Sidorov) even believe that the US is in no condition to fight any war, no matter how small. Furthermore, most (all?) Russian analysts also believe that the US is fully committed to a full-spectrum information and economic war to try to economically strangle both Russia and China. I think that it would be fair to say that nobody in Russia believes that the relationship with Trump’s US can, or will, improve. The tone in China is also changing, especially since the US has now launched a major anti-China strategic PSYOP. In other words, the US is merrily continuing down its current road which leads it to a simultaneous confrontation with not one, or even two, countries, but with a list of countries which seems to grow every day. So while it is true that in this case Trump appears to have canceled two wars, we should not assume that he won’t soon start one, if only to deflect the blame for his total mismanagement of the COVID19 crisis. Should that happen, we can only hope that all the “resistance countries” and movement will provide as much support as possible to whomever the Empire attacks next.


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Lone Ranger

Im not an expert but I know how they think.
I would be careful on the way back, its a lot more easy and safe to capture an empty tanker and the endresult is the same.
Safe trip home.


You make a valid point.

Zionism = EVIL

As I have said before, the Americunt arseholes are imploding a full scale race and class based civil war is erupting, so I don’t believe that they have the capability to start a swan song war with Iran. Like Saker has wisely stated, Iran has shown more courage than Russia or even China in directly confronting the Americunt cowards. The advantage Iran has, besides a unified proud ancient civilization is that many Iranians currently in power have lived in the US shithole, including Zarif so they can predict how the Americunt dumbasses act and also how to troll them.

Scenes outside the White House

Raptar Driver

Saker is wrong again, deflecting for Putin. In my opinion it is the Putinists that are the 6th column doing the bidding of the empire and the Russians are finally catching on to the ruse.

Zionism = EVIL

It is hardly Putin burning the Americunt shithole, the whole rotten cesspool had inherent weakness as a failed state. You don’t need to be a Nobel Laureate in Economics to understand that it is a case of GUNS vs BUTTER. The Americunt morons spend trillions on Jew fanned wars and barely anything on their hapless ignorant people and the system just collapsed as its evil foundations built on racism, genocide,land theft and slavery are rotten, sounds familiar, look at Palestine and the fate of the Zionist cunts,

Raptar Driver

Most states are failed states. The American system works because it is the global system. If 1 falls the other falls. Hasn’t this covid nonsense taught you that we already have 1 world government?

Raptar Driver

You are wrong about White people here. They are too afraid to be racist. If you show any even tiny minor racism you will lose your job and you will be ostracized by other white people. You shouldn’t talk about what you don’t know.


No they are pro lgbtq nations(period) Though you could say moscow has alotta khazars going by the draconic nazi style id check,which interm prior to hand russia was doing ok dealing corona?
Saker can talk sht,conversely we need to see us petrodolla gone,thus bring back gold standard

Xoli Xoli

Trump is blowing a false fake trumpet.


Hi everyone, come here to meet for sex –


She knows the place where the incels and simps are

Zionism = EVIL

Not with an ugly mug like yours “Julia”.

Zionism = EVIL

Even a blind man with his head stuck up his arse can see that the Americunts are in implosion phase, dead broke, streets on fire and even their vassals like Australia and Canada are calling them pathetic. Trump is a buffoon and a moron who speaks like a 10 ten year old retard, and no one in their right mind will take the dumbass Americunt losers seriously as the failed shithole is burning and far worse is yet to come as the Jew parasites have bled the rednecks dry with endless lost wars, unsustainable military spending, institutional racism, greed and socio-economic collapse. As I have said for years AmeriKKKa is kaput!

Wayne Nicholson

There was a new report yesterday that the remaining 2 tankers turned back after Trump sanctioned the tankers Greek owners.

good american

If it was true , you’d think it would be headlining in various places. Besides, wouldn’t they use their own? It would be short-sighted indeed not to anticipate that sort reaction from the US.


The tankers and their crew were sanctioned more than a week ago. So, what you read must be a typo or an error in reading.
So far 4 tankers have reached their destination and delivered their cargo. The last one (Clavel) will arrive on Sunday around noon, local time.

The first 2 of 4 which delivered their cargo last week sailed back. Forest sailed on Saturday the 30th and turned off it’s ID and Fortune set sail to Bandar-Abbas on May 31st, estimated to arrive in Iran on July.

What US did was to bark orders at its minions and warn them against giving any service (from sea ports to insurance) to those tankers.

Fuel from Iran will be available from Monday and apparently Venezuelan authorities made an arrangement like Iran. Any car can fill up the tank up to 60 (or 120) liters per month is subsidized by the government for the price equivalent of about 2,5 Cents, more than that the price will be more. Some gas stations (about 200?) will sell the fuel without any quota at the price equivalent to 50 Cents per liter.
I hope repairs are done as soon as possible and power is restored (with sufficient provisions to block any future US cyber attack) and refineries restart their work.

Elliot Abrams’s face while delivering the threats was priceless!

Wayne Nicholson

All I know is what I’ve read in the news. If the tankers made it through great.

It would be folly to assume the USA just lets this go without a fight. Expect something outrageous. Trump’s been tapped on the jaw and is reeling. The only way he wins is to start throwing bombs.


But if you were Greek, would you care about US sanctions? I mean the US and the EU have hardly been generous to the Greek interest in recent years


Oz is exporting huge ores to north korea,believe it or not.

Wayne Nicholson

The company owning the ships is registered in Greece. That doesn’t mean the owners are Greek. These ships are Greek flagged for tax purposes.

Whoever owns these ships are in business. Losing you ability to use the international banking system and trade in USD is a pretty stiff price to pay.

Zionism = EVIL

Rubbish, the 5th one just unloaded its oil and will go back next week. Meanwhile in the real world.


“The U.S. has long been a country with severe racial discrimination

where its various powers are creating inequalities,” the editorial said.

“The U.S. has long been a country with severe racial discrimination
where its various powers are creating inequalities in a failed state…Any single spark
can start a prairie fire,” the editorial said in a scathing attack on the US.

Tommy Jensen

The United States are looking at its Full Spectrum Usury Dominance on the long term, and everybody else are only interested in their little short term buck……………………………LOL.

Yes we back down on one side but double up on the other side. America is a winner nation and we always win because we have the brains and means to think! What no other nations have.



Is there a route whereby ‘aid ‘ can be sent to the Black Lives matter campaign in the US ? I was thinking along the lines of ‘aid’ provided by the US to trouble spots?

Blas de Lezo

Looks like regime change warmongers are gonna get a taste of their own medicine.

Zionism = EVIL

The Jew cunts have destroyed the rednecks and they pissed off. This is a more of class based uprising rather than on race as 200 million Americunt losers have no jobs, no homes and no future. The Bilderberg Jew cunts like Soros, Zuckerberg, Bezos, Gates etc own 99% of dwindling Americunt wealth, with a parasitic cancerous and toxic failed capitalist system like, is it any wonder why the average impoverished Americunt is torching buildings and police cars? BTW, young white college kids are at the forefront of this uprising, mostly young women.


These are anti lockdown riots first and anti police murder riots second. The police murder people unnecessarily in the US every day. That don’t get murdered in other places. But much of society now sees the same excessive use of force mentality being used against all of society with the lockdowns that is used by the police against the people that they murder every day. And these riots are push back against that while the legislators sell out their constituents to the Jews and their collaborators.

A lot of people believe the scamdemic lies, but a lot don’t because they’ve been lied to by the government and Jew media their entire lives. And have done the fact checking and know that they’re being lied to about the scamdemic. Trump said that when the lootin starts the shooting starts. That goes both ways in a nation with a citizenry as heavily armed as the US. And it’s a slippery slope that’s best avoided.

The place to start getting these problems solved is with dejudification to create a Jew free America. The US would be a much different and better place without Jews causing all of the problems that they do. Like the scamdemic that the lying Jew media is at the forefront of cheerleading. Judaism should be outlawed and the synagogues and yeshivas permanently closed and preferably demolished like the Chinese did.

Zionism = EVIL

100% in agreement, you and I and anyone with half a brain knows what the Jew cunts global agenda, but people are on to them. This is not a race issue, but a question of inequity and the Jew cunts causing havoc around the globe. Have you noticed the hasbara arseholes have disappeared since this started!


Jake123 got banned. I’m not sure where the others went. Maybe they got tired of dealing with truthers.

Zionism = EVIL

Israeli forces training US police on large scale: Amnesty & Human Right Watch

Amnesty International has revealed how police forces from a
surprisingly wide expanse of the United States have been receiving
training from Israeli forces and services, warning that the
violence being exercised by the American law enforcement has come to
match Israeli brutality.

The UK-based rights group said the American police members have been
either traveling to the occupied Palestinian territories to receive training or have
been trained inside the United States by Israeli forces


I’m sure that that’s part of the problem. Jew corruption of the judicial and legislative systems are also part of the problem. The laws are written to encourage rather than discourage these crimes. And the lying Jew media is always ready to spin and cover up these crimes.

A citizenry corrupted by a lifetime of lying Jew media brainwashing that makes up the juries that lets these criminals off isn’t helping. And federal inaction and negligence in the face of blatant police criminality, when they have all of the tools to correct it, only perpetuates the abuse.

Zionism = EVIL

However, more average people need to know the Jew evil agenda as some of us have been warning for years. Their MSM Bliderberg narrative of sheer lies and distortions permeates through brainwashed dumbed down western societies. The global brutal police state agenda is driven by the Zionist cunts on the Palestine occupation brutality model. The surveillance state is also part of the strategy and that is why the are scared of “alternate” media like Southfront and others who give a more truthful picture. This counter message to the Jew propaganda must be more widely dispersed now. The Zionist arseholes are losing control of the fake narrative of lies and the Hollywood perverts like Weinstein are being exposed.


I completely agree. Which is why I’m suspicious of “truthers” like Alex Jones who ignore the Jew problem and blame the Chinese for all of the problems that the Jews create. And it isn’t just Jones. Much of the US based alternative media uses the same model. People Giraldi, Duke, Rense, the Saker and others are a lot more accurate than Infowars. I don’t agree with some of them about everything. But I think that they’re correct on the Jew issue.

Having said that I recognise that Jones has been precinct on a number of key issues. He just does expose light and deliberately neglects to put all of the pieces together implicating Judaism and Zionism and leaves it up to the reader and viewer to flesh out the big picture.

The social media content on platforms like Disqus also makes a contribution to exposing the Jew problem. 81% of Americans oppose giving $38 billion to Israel. Clearing the IDF out of the occupied territories and implementing the UN Resolutions that Israel is violating leading to a referendum replacing Israel with a unified Palestine. And enacting a UN Convention abolishing Judaism, similar to slavery and torture, for member states to ratify would open a lot of people’s eyes to the severity of the Jew problem in the US and worldwide.


The root of this problem is 13th Amandment. They abolished slavery and South lost milions in work force. But in 13th Amandmen’t there is a loophole, a “catch” called “criminalisation”. Criminals doesn’t have rights. And there you go… 5% of population of the World has 25% of incarcerated. And among them 5-10% of population (Afro-americans) make 40% of incarcerated. America at it’s finest, beacon of democracy… One more thing, why criminilysing of small amounts of drugs? And why punishment for crack is 10-20 time worst then for cocaine?


“But in 13th Amandmen’t there is a loophole, a “catch” called “criminalisation”. Criminals doesn’t have rights.”

I don’t see what you’re referring to in this article:

– Thirteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution –


The 13th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution declared that “Neither slavery nor involuntary servitude, except as a punishment for crime whereof the party shall have been duly convicted, shall exist within the United States, or any place subject to their jurisdiction.”


Ok, I see it. What does that have to do with police murders?


It has, because since time of slavery till today nothing changed much. Decades or even a century of “criminalisation” of African-americans and feramongering through media has made police too quick to pull the trigger. Also many cases or to say most of the cases where those police officers were acquited of guilt didn’t help too.


The same police murders happen to white people. Blacks aren’t the same as whites. They rarely engage in mass shootings like whites do. Though they do have a much higher incidence of gun crime. Just look at Chicago.

I’ve lived here all of my life and worked extensively in black areas. The inner city areas where blacks live are high crime areas. That’s why there are higher percentages of blacks in the correctional system. If they weren’t high crime areas there wouldn’t be a disproportional percentage of blacks with criminal records.

They also have a much higher percentage of the population that are HIV positive. All racial groups have differences that go beyond body types. It’s just the way that it is.


And someone should believe that Afro-americans are more prone to violence and crime? First, white folks catched them like animals and chained and brought to America to be the slaves. Almost all women were raped. Almost all people were beaten daily. Thousands died. They baptised them forcefuly and erased their religion and culture and language. Then South lost in a civil war and came “abolition”. Than came KKK and lynching and segregation. Afro-americans were hanged, beaten to death and falsly accused and sntencend to slave labour in prisons en masse (so called criminalisation, wich in fact is slavery in other shape or form). Last case of lynching hapened in 1981. And was pretty popular till 60′. Whole the time Hollywood and other media depicted Afro-americans as half animals lurking outside some bush to jump on some innocent white girl and to rape her. “Super predators” screamed from pages of newspapers.Then came the war in Vietnam and civil rights movements. Afro-mericans were killed and inprisoned again and designated as enemy of the state No1. FBI treated them as terrorists. Chance to be stoped and searched and abused by police if you are Afro-american were 1000% higher then if you are white. Law and order must be restored, politician said. Than sentences started to rise and rise. Than came criminalisation of many things like posessing small amount of drugs and petty crimes. Why sentencens for crack were 10-20x harsher than for cocaine? In many states if you were in jail you lose right to vote. Why by every application for job, food stamps etc. they ask if you were in prison? And than came the rule “3 strikes and you are out”. And then came the privatisation of the jails. Cheap, practicaly slave labour in abundance. just criminalise, criminalise, harsher, harsher…And once they are in, don’t let them out. And of course whole industries were built around housing milions of prisoners. Health care, food industry, security systems etc. Naturaly in search for more profit industry started to throw in not just minorities but poor whites too. But to say Afro-americans are just more prone to criminal….Withouth the whole story and background. Segregated, marginalised, thrown into ghettoes and slums. Systematically oppressed, deprived of means to survive and never fully integrated in society…..I wonder why they protest?


Black people call the police when they’re victims just like white people. What do you want them to do let the black criminals run rampant and victimise more black people?

I don’t see the discrimination when the police protect black victims just like white victims. And the criminal justice system prosecutes white criminals the same as black criminals. Most crime is black on black, not white on black.

If blacks weren’t victimizing blacks they wouldn’t have crime rates higher than Latins and Asians who suffered similar discrimination but didn’t victimize their own race like blacks do.

If blacks would talk English like Latins and Asians after the first generation rather than ghetto slang. They’d get along with other races better rather than being so devisive.


Criminal is criminal. I’m just saying if whole system is rigged from beginning against you and your comunity..Who is richer? Who accumulated first wealth, partialy also through slave labour? Is american justice system same for poor and rich? Who has more chance to become academic citizen? Who is more protected and served by police? Did I lied anything in my previous post? By the way I’m white too. European. And sick, appalled by level of racism and state of the human rights in the “beacon of democracy”, the USA.USA is full blown militarised police state, oppressing people within and outside their borders. And tell me why shouldn’t they protest against police brutality? Too many times I saw cool blooded killings by police in USA. American police kills more people in general in one year than England’s in 300 yrs. England has around 60 mln ppl.


The US and the planet need to be dejudified so that they’re Jew free. Judaism and Zionism and the trouble that these people cause is the biggest problem facing our planet. The US would be a much different and better place without Jews. The place to start is with outlawing Judaism and permanently closing the synagogues and yeshivas.


USA was corrupted and evil and bloodthirsty and savage from it’s foundation. Jews haven’t killed almost all the Indians and brought millions of slaves. WASP did. Save that for someone else. By the way, I’m Orthodox Cristian, just in case you start with classic jew attacks…


Why do you support the evil Jew pedophile cult that rapes 1,000 children worldwide with cannibal prostitutes during vile blood sucking rituals every week, infects them with venereal disease, and murders them?


I talk with blacks almost everyday. They live in the same building that I do. Most of them in the NW US where I’m at who were raised here speak English. When I run into one who speaks ghetto slang it’s a red flag.


The United States founded on sheer greed and hubris finds itself in the same category of other violent, morally and economically bankrupt failed states like Pakistan or Israel—like a country with a deep malaise eating its rotten core. After years of delusional self induced “exceptionalism”, Americans woke up to find themselves citizens of a failed state with anger and fires raging from coast to coast.

Ashok Varma

US is literally disintegrating and even more destructive foreign wars for their Zionist masters is the last thing even a bombastic cowardly buffoon like Trump needs.


the disjointed states of A is desperately trying to find a) a way out from under of the gross national debt of close to 26000 billion bucks and b) avoid having the currency and credit derivatives of close to 700000 billion bucks being utilized or called in (which spells ruin and damnation for the country) and thus needs to find a quick fix that will save the day for washington dc. such quick fix ain’t nothing they will find in the blink of an eye.