The Saker: Will Trump Really Start Two Wars Instead of “Just” One?

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The Saker: Will Trump Really Start Two Wars Instead of "Just" One?


Written by The Saker; Originally appeared at The Unz Review

Amidst the worldwide pandemic induced scare most of us have probably lost track of all the other potential dangers which still threaten international peace and stability. Allow me to list just a few headlines which, I strongly believe, deserve much more attention than what they got so far. Here we go:

  • Military Times: “5 Iran tankers sailing to Venezuela amid US pressure tactics
  • Time: “5 Iranian Tankers Head to Venezuela Amid Heightened Tensions Between U.S. and Tehran
  • FoxNews: “Iran tankers sailing to Venezuela in effort to undermine US sanctions

Notice that Military Times speaks of “US pressure tactics”, Time of “tensions” and FoxNews of “efforts to undermined US sanctions”?

I don’t think that this is a coincidence. Folks in the US military are much more in touch with reality than the flag-waving prostitutes which some people call “reporters” or “journalists”.

Furthermore, the US has embarked on a new policy to justify its acts of piracy on the high seas with something called Visit, Board, Search and Seizure (VBSS) all under the pretext of the war on drugs. To get a better understanding of the context of these developments I asked a specialist of Maritime issues of our community, NatSouth, who replied the following: (stress added)

If a ship does not comply with the request to be boarded, it is usual that the pursuing authorities must gain the permission of the ‘flag’ state prior to boarding, on the high seas and the pursuit has to have started in the coastal state’s jurisdictional waters. The caveat here is that in the Caribbean – Caribbean Regional Maritime Agreement (CRA) – (long name: Agreement Concerning Co-operation in Suppressing Illicit Maritime and Air Trafficking in Narcotic Drugs and Psychotropic Substances in the Caribbean Area). So, there is an agreement with participating coastal states on boardings and pursuits in EEZs and the like. You can find more on the legal aspects of boardings at sea here: and more info on so-called “consensual boardings” here:

The anti-drug/ counterterrorism angle allows the U.S. Navy and the USCG to carry out interdictions on the high seas. Important point to note whether this approach will be taken to interdict the tankers, given that Venezuela is a declared narco-State. The absurdity is that Venezuela isn’t the primary transit point in the region, Colombia holds that honour.

If I could add at this point, the origins are that Venezuela didn’t wish to play ball with Washington anymore, specifically with the DEA back in 2005, squaring the circle of sorts, (or should that be a vicious circle cunningly used by Washington, because who is going to argue with that narrative, aka the war on terror). March: SOUTHCOM’s Adm. Faller: “There will be an increase in US military presence in the hemisphere later this year. This will include an enhanced presence of ships, aircraft, & security forces to reassure our partners… & counter a range of threats to include illicit narco-terrorism.” At the same time, the State dept released this the US could effectively carry out boardings under the guise of counterterrorism as well.

While the Iranian tankers were in the Mediterranean, Washington released a (delayed) “Global Maritime Sanctions Advisory”, to the maritime industry, setting out guidelines to shipowners and insurers to enable them to avoid the risks of sanctions penalties related to North Korea, Syria and Iran. This also concerns oil exports from Iran, (but doesn’t apply to Iranian flagged ships). This came after the State Dept gave warning notice to oil companies to stop operations, including Rosneft (Russia), Reliance (India) and Repsol (Spain).

The Saker: Will Trump Really Start Two Wars Instead of "Just" One?

Then NatSouth concluded the following:

Under international law, every merchant ship must be registered with a flag state, which has jurisdiction over the vessel. Hence, this time, the use of Iranian-flagged tankers, as a direct response from Washington’s latest version of restating “maximum pressure” campaign on enforcement of Iran and Venezuela sanctions, (back in Feb, literally the same language as in Aug 2019). There was talk back then of a naval embargo, which would a serious notch up in tensions. There was mention of the 4 U.S. warships in the Caribbean, the U.S. Navy tweeted about, but one the Preble went through the Panama Canal into the Pacific).

Pretty clear, isn’t it?

What the US is doing is substituting itself for the United Nations and it is now openly claiming the right to board any vessel under whatever kind of pious pretext like, say, narco-trafficing, nuclear proliferation, sanctions against so-called “rogue states”, etc. Clearly, the AngloZionists expect everybody to roll over and take it.

How likely is that?

Let’s look at a few Iranian headlines, all from PressTV:

  • PressTV, May 16th: “Iran’s fuel shipment to Venezuela guaranteed by its missile power
  • PressTV, May 17th: “US aware Iran will respond ‘very strongly’ if Venezuela-bound ships attacked: Analyst
  • PressTV, May 18th: “Iran: US bears responsibility for any foolish act against tankers heading to Venezuela

Three days in a row. I think that it is fair to assume that the Iranians are trying very hard to convince Uncle Shmuel not to mess with these tankers. Does anybody seriously believe that the Iranians are bluffing?

Before we look at some of the aspects of this potential crisis, let’s just mention a few things here.

First, the US is acting in total and official illegality. Just like the bombing of Syria, the threats to Iran, or the US murderous sanctions Uncle Shmuel imposes left and right – the blockade of Venezuela is a) totally illegal and b) an act of war under international law.

Second, if USN commanders think they can operate with impunity only because the Caribbean is far away from Iran, they are kidding themselves. Yes, Iranian forces cannot defend these tankers so far away from home, nor can they take any action against the USN in the Atlantic-Caribbean theater of naval operations. But what they can and will do is retaliate against any AngloZionist target in the Middle-East, including any oil/gas tanker.

Third, while Venezuela’s military is tiny and weak compared to the immensely expensive and bloated US military, being immensely expensive and bloated is no guarantee of success. In fact, and depending on how the Venezuelan leadership perceives its options, there could be some very real risk for the US in any attempt to interfere with the free passage of these ships.

What do I mean by that?

Did you know that Venezuela had four squadrons of Su-30MKV for a total of 22 aircraft? Did you know that Venezuela also had an unknown number of Kh-31A supersonic anti-shipping missiles? And did you know that Venezuela had a number of S-300VM and 9K317M2 Buk-M2E long range and medium range SAMs?

True, that is nowhere near the amount of weapons systems Venezuela would need to withstand a determined US attack, but it is more than enough to create some real headaches for US planners. Do you remember what the Argentinian Air Force did to the British Navy during the Malvinas war? Not only did the Argentinians sink two Type 42 guided missile destroyers (the HMS Sheffield and the HMS Coventry) which were providing long-range radar and medium-high altitude missile picket for the British carriers, they also destroyed 2 frigates, 1 landing ship, 1 landing craft, 1 container ship. Frankly, considering how poorly defended the British carriers were, it is only luck which saved them from destruction (that, and the lack of sufficient number of Super Étendard strike aircraft and Exocet missiles). I would add here that the British military, having been defeated on many occasions, has learned the painful lessons of their past defeats and does not suffer from the cocky-sure attitude of the US military. As a result, they were very careful during the war against Argentina and that caution was one of the factors which gave a Britain well-deserved the victory (I mean that in military terms only; in moral terms this was just another imperialist war with all the evil that entails). Had the Argentinians had a modern air force and enough anti-shipping missiles, the war could have taken a very different turn.

Returning to the topic of Venezuela, war is a much more complex phenomenon than just a struggle of military forces. In fact, I strongly believe that political factors will remain the single most important determinant factor of most wars, even in the 21st century. And chances are that the Venezuelans, being the militarily weaker side, will look to political factors to prevail. Here is one possible scenario among many other possible ones:

Caracas decides that the US seizing/attacking the Iranian tankers constitutes an existential threat to Venezuela because if that action goes unchallenged, then the US will totally “strangle” Venezuela. Of course, the Venezuelan military cannot take on the immense US military, but what they could do is force a US intervention, say by attacking one/several USN vessel(s). Such an attack, if even only partially successful, would force the US to retaliate, bringing US forces closer not only to Venezuelan air defenses, but also closer to the Venezuelan people which will see any US retaliation as an illegitimate counter-counter-attack following the fully legitimate Venezuelan counter-attack.

Then there is the problem of defining victory. In the US political “culture” winning is usually defined as pressing a few buttons to fire off some standoff weapons, kill lots of civilians, and then declare that the “indispensable nation” has “kicked the other guy’s ass”. The problem with that is the following one: if they other guy is very visibly weaker and has no chance for a military victory of his own, then the best option for him is to declare that “surviving is winning” – meaning that if Maduro stays in power, then Venezuela as won. How would the US cope with that kind of narrative? Keep in mind that Caracas is a city of over two million people which even in peacetime is rather dangerous (courtesy of both regular crime and potential guerilla activities). Yet, for Maduro to “win” all he has to show is that he controls Caracas. Keep in mind that even if the US forces succeed in creating some kind of “zone of real democracy” somewhere near the Colombian border, that will mean nothing to Maduro, especially considering the terrain between the border and the capital city (please check out this very high resolution map of Venezuela or this medium resolution one). As for the notion of a USN landing on the shores of Venezuela, all we need to do is to remember how the immense Hodgepodge of units which were tasked with invading Grenada (including 2 Ranger Battalions, Navy Seals, most of an Airborne Division, etc. for a total of over 7,000 soldiers(!) against a tiny nation which never expected to be invaded (for details, and a good laugh, see here for a full list of participating US forces!) was defeated by the waves of the Caribbean and the few Cuban military engineers who resisted with small-arms fire (eventually, most of the 82AB was calling in to fix this mess).

The Saker: Will Trump Really Start Two Wars Instead of "Just" One?

In other words, if Maduro remains in power in Caracas then, in political terms, Venezuela wins even though it would lose in purely military terms.

This phenomenon is hardly something new, as shown by the following famous quote by Ho Chi Minh: “You can kill ten of my men for every one I kill of yours. But even at those odds, you will lose and I will win.”

By the way, this is exactly the same problem the Empire faces with Iran: as long as the Islamic Republic remains an Islamic Republic it “wins” in any exchange of strikes with the US and/or Israel.

Still, it is pretty obvious that the US can turn much of Venezuela into a smoking heap of ruins. That is true (just like what the US did to Korea, Vietnam, Iraq or Serbia and Israel what did to Lebanon in 2006). But that would hardly constitute a “victory” in any imaginable sense of the word. Again, in theory, the US might be able to secure a number of landing locations and then send in an intervention force which could try to take key locations in Caracas. But what would happen after that? Not only would the hardcore Chavistas trigger a guerilla insurrection which would be impossible to crush (when is the last time the US prevailed in a counter-insurgency war?), but many Venezuelans would expect the US to pay for reconstruction (and they would be right, according to the rules of international law, “once you take it, you own it” meaning that the US would become responsible for the socio-economic situation of the country). Finally, there is always the option of an anti-leadership “decapitating” strike of some kind. I believe that in purely military terms, the US has the know-how and resources to accomplish this. I do not believe that this option would secure anything for the US, instead – it would further destabilize the situation and would trigger some kind of reaction by the Venezuelan military both outside and inside Venezuela. If anything, the repeated failures of the various coup attempts against Chavez and Maduro prove that the the bulk of the military remains firmly behind the Chavistas (and the failed coup only served to unmask the traitors and replace them anyway!).

The bottom line is this: if Uncle Shmuel decides to seize/attack the Iranian tankers, there is not only a quasi certitude of a war between the US and Iran (or, at the very least, an exchange of strikes), but there is also a non-trivial possibility that Maduro and his government might actually decide to provoke the US into a war they really can’t win.

Is Trump capable of starting a process which will result in not one, but two wars?

You betcha he is! A guy who thinks in categories like “my button is bigger than yours” or “super-dooper weapons” obviously understands exactly *nothing* about warfare, while the climate of messianic narcissism prevailing among the US ruling classes gives them a sense of total impunity.

Let’s hope that cooler heads, possibly in the military, will prevail. The last thing the world needs today is another needless war of choice, never mind two more.

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US is a failed state hooked on wars and a hostage to the corrupt opportunist Jew cabal that controls its levers of a failed economy, manipulative media, and social dystopia.


Any US military adventures with Venezuela and Iran have a result that the US will doubtless regret.

I look forward to a US rerun of Rome’s Legions misfortunes that would put several nails in the US regime coffin.

“Battle of the Teutoburg Forest – The Destruction of Three Legions The battle of the Teutoburg Forest was between Germans and the Roman army in 9BC. German tribes marched through the Teutoburg Forest, destroying three Roman legions; and the Roman commander Quintilius Varus was killed.”

Zionism = EVIL

It is called imperial overstretch, the Americunt fucks are neither Romans, Greeks or Persians but dumbass greedy, ignorant racist WASP trash of Euro ghettos who stole North America from peaceful native people and then perpetuated global mayhem, the Jew controlled motherfuckers are at the end of their tether.

Liberal guy

And what about Blackwater and mercenaries firms like them does they can provide Any good for the Americans in the future if war happens between so democracy freedom armies led by Americans and any other armies and powers who oppose them and are demonised as evil anti-democracy terrorist. Sure enough many black water employees are kiiled by the yemanis in the yemeni Saudi scum war.

Liberal guy

It’s nearly impossible to win in trapped forest areas like Venezuela and Vietnam even if they have superior air power and technology the zio Americans had tasted such defeat in Vietnam and Venezuela well these bastards will face more agoney if they try to invade and attack the resistance fighters.


Totally agree. It may take even less in the situation today. Likely as not, should an aircraft carrier get hit and sunk and supporting defense screen ships get hit hard as well…that will spell the end of US power projection. Even if they were to inflict heavy damage to whoever they are attacking, they will have a very difficult, if not impossible task in convincing the public of success when the navy is on the bottom of the sea. Of course there are options…none that are good. Nuclear strikes, blaming Russia as interfering(drawing in NATO), etc…are all on the table. But…should the US fail in a stand-off attack…then the genie is out of the bottle and allies will flee any US alliance. Mostly US allies expect the US to contain any conflict. The fact that most still follow US diktat is proof enough that they are willing participants and will suffer the same fate. But the status quo will be dealt a last coffin nail and US control will cease. Hopefully the pitchforks will come out at home after realization sets in, but never underestimate the power of the MSM and American gullibility. But man oh man, should the MSM fail in their lies, all bets are off. Then there would likely be a caravan of the willing heading to their last ally…Israel. However they would then find out how useful Israel will find them to be, as in not at all.


I agree with all you say.

The Western lunatics in power should hake heed of President Putin’s warning to the US a couple of years ago, when he said that even a low yield nuclear attack on Russia by NATO nations ( or anyone else I would think) , would receive an aoo out nuclear response by Russia on the country where the missiles were launched from and also the country responsible. i.e. the USA.


Well, the DFs haven’t listened yet as they continue to poke the bear and it’s group of friendly nations. Right now the US is assembling an ‘anti-drug smuggling’ force on the Venezuelan/Colombian border. Now there is warrant for the Nat Assembly leader in Venezuela for …drum roll…narco trafficking. The only people that believe that lie are MSM drooling idiots. Panama/Vietnam 2.0.


US politicians. military,bankers, police, et al are totally deranged.
I think as simple as common cult worship. Such cults have enabled human madness for thousands of years.

The current US cult members exhibit behaviour that is no different to the gangs of thieves in Idlib and aoo around the globe.

The problem is of course that the US idiot cult has nuclear weapons.


Well said.


Cry more, loser.

Jimmy Jim



he truly is one repulsive asshole best accommodated with a shallow grave in the negeve desert once the alliance of iron dooooom has kicked the jews to hell.


You nation is fake! It’s a colony made up so that the west can have more control!


nah what is called israel is just a failed geopolitical experiment about to be eradicated and the land returned to the rightful owners, the palestinians!

Liberal guy

More humiliation for the cowards if they start another war with the resistance countries

Hasbara Hunter

Very little is needed to start wars…more than a century ago…on a street corner in Sarajevo, Gavrilo Princip fired the shot that started World War I when he killed Archduke Franz Ferdinand….USraHell does not need to do very much to start the next one…and will be obliterated during the proces…


Venezuela’s military have said they will provide an escort when the tankers enter territorial waters. The US would have to try funny games on the open sea but Iran could do the same in the Hormuz.

Zionism = EVIL

The dumbass Americunt morons have spent so much money and squandered global goodwill fighting Jew Hollywood phantom enemies and creating the myth of a “superpower” that the evil fucks have ignored the real threat; the Jew Bilderberg parasites that have destroyed the life of an average brainwashed redneck.Just look at the pitiful condition of their health care that 250,000 or more the poor, blacks and Hispanics will die of the Pimpeovirus as they play these delusional “full spectrum domination” fantasies.


And so does Israel can hurt any Iranian ship they may try to cross the Suez canal towards Gaza, Syria or Lebanon. Just open a map and see how easy it is for us, our navy has the advantage in the mediterranean sea.

Jimmy Jim



Like you did in 2006 against Hezbollah? Do you really want to get your asses kicked so much? Navy? Advantage? You are talking about a shithole patch on sand on the edge of the ME region. Uncle Shmuel will not help you.


Sounds like you are very butt hurt, guess we did something right :)


Not wise to sink an oil tanker in the Med or Suez loaded with a million barrels & create an eco disaster!


Why sink it? we could take over if with SOF units. Iran knows it too, the last time they tried to send a hostile ship to our enemies, this is what happened:

rightiswrong rightiswrong

Will your special needs troops be using rubber bullets on the highly explosive oil tanker?

You cretin!


We always knew Zionism is Fascism, quite akin to National Socialism.

Albert Pike

Natonal Socialism was a zionist operation…


The Israeli navy is internationally known for two things – Netanyahu’s back-hander corruption scandal for German submarine contracts, and Hezbollah’s taking out of Israeli naval vessel with anti-ship missile in 2006.


Wow, that’s all you’ve got? try harder.

Albert Pike

Your own Rabbi Marvin Antelman tells us in ‘To eliminate The Opiate Vol 2’, that National Socialism was a frankist operation. But there is no difference between Frankism and Zionism, and his the search of a other -a muslim conspiracy- isn’t very convincing, because one always lands at the Dönmeh and Bektashi masonic crypto Jews.

Ergo – you haven’t learnt anything, and are gunslinging for the national socialist cause.

Ricardo Xavier

Vietnam, Iraq, Iran, Venezuela…. China… Covid-19… China…

The world is getting tired from USA arrogance. They are not the freedom nation propaganda anymore. Accumulation effect. Europe will command the world again after this pandemic.


You wish. Maybe you should review the positions of Russia and China.

klove and light

USA WINNING a war against Iran or Venezuela is utter nonsense……

to win a war….1 of 2 Things MUST happen

1. unconditional surrender of the nation
2. the Invasion and capture of the capital and the defeat of all Military Forces INSIDE the country

lololololololol Good luck with either Venezuela or iran

Invading a Country like Venezuela will undoubtly lead to Vietnam 2.0 (jungle Warfare man to man battles) lol

invading Iran is a No-Go from Starters…..invade from which Country?? iraq??Turkey??Afghanistan?Jordan?? lolol

Attacking Iran???? sure is possible…..only that will be the 100% end of ANY american Forces in the entire middle east including their naval base for the 5th fleet in Bahrain……

So the BIG Question is and has Always been …why on earth would any american or for the sake of the matter israeli officila ONLY THINK About the Option of attacking Iran, knowingly that the Reprecussions will have a DEVASTATING effect on both the USA and Israel……..the answer was Always there..

to go nuclear…………and it seems as if the zionists are doing everything possible to OPEN that Corridor…..were by the coimng annexiation of the west bank will act as a catalyser…….

ps. i can see the Headlines at Mainstream already ” nuclear warheads used against iranian Targets, BUT the “new” nuclear warheads have Little effect to the civilian Population and are ONLY used against the Evil Evil iranian Military Targets”

death to america death to Israel curse on the jews—the houhti slogan


It’s not about winning a war, it’s about destroying a nation. In that, US are quite successful.


That, again, is what happens when the people believe their govs own propaganda. Common sense tells one that they are liars and not to be trusted…but Americans cannot be troubled to take interest and figure out what is what. It’s much easier to ‘believe it all’, than to question and be an outsider.

Romeo Pesiao

My eyes is in the horizon, keeping the wait and see attitude.

Swift Laggard II

wars and rumors of war is the language of zatan

peter mcloughlin

Either of these wars has the potential to escalate into global conflict. All the signs are there, the pattern of history clear.


Comparing Serbia and Vietnam? The Saker is loosing it.


why, serbia was clinton’s last effort to accomplish something noticeable (apart from the Monica L debacle) and it was, like lybia, a terror act which accomplished the shredding of the last of the USSR’s former holdings. vietnam was an act of terror as well and they lost hands down and only succeeded in killing millions and destroying the lives of millions.

did you know that the disjointed states of A dropped more bombs on North Korea than was dropped
during ww2, on all fronts.


I knew, thx. I was just hinting at the Sakers chauvinistic orthodox bias.

Trap Is Not Gay
Doom Sternz

Here is the background to the criminal activities of the US regime………David and Charles Koch needed the XL Keystone Pipeline. The XL Keystone pipeline takes Canadian tar-sands oil to Texas Gulf Coast refineries. The refineries of the Texas Gulf Coast are optimized for heavy crude. It would cost billions of dollars to rebuild the giant Flint Hills Corpus Christi Refinery, owned by Koch Industries, to use the less-polluting Texas oil drilled nearby.

The Koch’s built the giant Flint Hills Corpus Christi Refinery to process heavy crude from Venezuela. At the time the plant was built Koch Industries were pillaging Venezuelan heavy crude for a fraction of its true value. When Hugo Chavez became President of Venezuela he insisted Koch Industries pay full price for the heavy crude.

Yuan Guido promised to return control of the oil to US companies (ie Koch Industries, Flint Hills Corpus Christi Refineries, there are no other refineries that can process this heavy crude). Hence Trump tells us that Yuan Guido is the democratic leader of Venezuela. Trump himself obtained 3 million less votes, Pompeo (no votes) and Bolton (no votes). Guido has never stood for election anywhere. Maduro however was re-elected with a huge majority.

Massive corruption due to big corporate control of government, continual abuse of power and mass murder can only be described as fascism. White Supremacy and Fascism is the Key to understanding America’s Venezuela aggression (supreme international crime). Venezuela is a story of four centuries of white rule and It all came to an end with the 1998 election of Hugo Chavez who won with the overwhelming support of the Mestizo (indigenous) majority.

This rejection of white supremacy continues under Maduro, Chavez’ chosen successor. Social investment in Venezuela during the Chavez administration reduced poverty from nearly 50% in 1999 to about 27% in 2011, increased school enrollment and brought real democracy to Venezuela. Venezuela was the wealthiest nation, by far, in South America. Hugo Chavez became President on 2 February 1999. Venezuela reached its all-time-high economic-growth rate in 2004 after 5 years of Socialism.

The economy rapidly declined as soon as the U.S. started its coup-attempts and imposed sanctions. It was the US that murdered Chavez. It is estimated that the sanctions have been the catalyst for up to 40,000 deaths in Venezuela.

Lets be quite clear about this: the people who support Trumps White Supremacy (colonial rule) are no better than he is. The problem with fascists is that they think they are Republicans.


Eventhough I disagree with your use of the term ‘fascists’ and am not sure about the White supremacism issue I find what you posted as very interesting view. Thanks for sharing it!


In the US one can continually hear the waa waa cry of ‘white genocide’. But ask for an example of whites being slaughtered and all you get is more waa waa waa. What they really mean is the loss of complete control of society.


guess it’s a situation where china and russia need to tell the morons in the white house – nothing doing – and send one or two of the missile cruisers to shadow the Iranian tankers. anyway, well done Iran that doesn’t desert a ‘friend’ in need.

cechas vodobenikov

amerika and israel r paper kittens—-USA repeatedly exposed to be impotent from Korea, Vietnam to Afghanistan, syria today–Israel no different from their humiliation in 2006 to syria today